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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Adventa (7191) >>> A Recession-Proof Business

Adventa (7191) >>> A Recession-Proof Business By Zhuge Liang

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Adventa’s quarterly results came in within expectation, mainly boosted by deferred tax income and the consistent EBITDA margin of 11% q-o-q. However, compared with the previous years, EBITDA margin was down 2%-pts from 13% previously on higher operation costs, including higher prices of latex and natural gas tariff and logistic costs. Nevertheless, Adventa is still a Buy with a target price of RM1.23 given that its niche products targeting the surgical market are recession-proof.

FY08 results were within expectation
Although 4QFY08 revenue increased only 4.5% q-o-q to RM65.4m, net profit jumped 92.9%, mainly due to deferred tax income. Its EBITDA of RM7.2m in the current quarter improved by about 4.2% while EBITDA margin remain unchanged at 11% q-o-q, due mainly to efficient cost controls and material prices locked in. In comparison with the previous year, the EBITDA margin of 11% was lower by 2%-pts mainly due to higher: 1) latex prices; 2) natural gas tariff, which increased by 72% from Aug 1 ‘08, and 3) logistics costs on the back of the fuel price increase.


Mantain BUY
Target price for Adventa is RM1.23, based on a PER of 7x FY09 earnings. We like the company for its specialisation in the surgical glove segment. To recap, surgical gloves yield one of the highest margins among other gloves owing to its niche target market and the higher technology required to manufacture it. Also, Adventa’s product is recession-proof as the need for gloves does not correlate with the economic cycle.

Risks to our view.
These include: 1) an unexpected uptrend in commodity prices as the locked-in period for raw material is usually shorter than the company’s sales commitments, thus putting rubber glove manufacturers at a disadvantage, and 2) weakening of the US dollar.

Adventa 7191

BUY===> Maintain
Price ==> RM0.695
Target==>RM1.23




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Random Charts Galore

Random Charts Galore By Zhuge Liang

1. Gamuda EMA 50 Support

2. YTL-WB EMA 7 21 50

3. AMMB EMA 4 9 18 Short term

4. AMMB Box Range

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; Pictures, Images and Photos

Happy New Year 2009 from ZHUGE LIANG and Ah Seng

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Composite Index 30/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 30日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 30/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded precisely above the Bollinger Middle Band on Tuesday, closing 1.6% higher. As a result, the Bollinger Bands Width also begins to expand, suggesting some bullish biased signal for the KLCI. However, the KLCI is still capped by the 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement resistance, and the next resistance would be at the 900 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Middle Band continues to serve as the dynamic support for the KLCI, and as long as the KLCI is still supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. As the KLCI steered away from the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, it is likely to break away from the downtrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Tuesday increased 44.4%, but still further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still relative insufficient, as most investors are still on the sidelines. In short, volume must increase to confirm the KLCI bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above the 70% level again on Tuesday, entering the short term bullish region.. If the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is likely to be bullish biased.

The Bollinger Bands Width expanded 10% on Tuesday, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, suggesting a bullish biased signal for the KLCI.
As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, the bullish movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.


综合指数 2008年 12月 30日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持再加上布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始打开,所以综指开始回弹,上扬1.6%。无论如何887点的胜图自动费氏线仍然是综指的阻力水平,综指必须先上扬突破此阻力,综指才有望上探900点的关口。

如图所示,布林频带将继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线,通常只要综指能继续的维持在布林中频带以上的话,那综指将有望更上一层楼。另一方面,综指继续的远离T1及T2的下降趋势轨道,这表示综指目前正处于一个摆脱下降趋势的格局。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量增长44.4%,不过成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线的水平,这显示市场的参与者还是不全面,所以交投量有待进一步改善,那综指上扬的动力才会更强大。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)迅速回弹至70%以上了,这表示综指的短期走势再度的回到上扬的格局。一般上,只要随机指标能继续的处于70%以上的话,那综指短期走势继续转强的机会将提高。

图中布林频带打开的幅度为10%,所以布林频带还是有相当不错的打开空间,换句话说,只要布林频带接下来继续打开,那综指将继续有望上扬,直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。



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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Financial Credit Crisis: Lessons Learned

Financial Credit Crisis: Lessons Learned By Zhuge Liang

Even at the height of a great bullmarket successfully navigating the financial markets is a challenge for investors. This challenge is magnified exponentially during market crises. It is at these times that solid investing fundamentals pay the greatest dividends. Indeed, investment lessons reinforced during these difficult periods can enhance an investor's chances of success not only during the crisis, but also throughout future market cycles. With that in mind, this final chapter of the tutorial will examine important investment lessons that can be learned from the credit crisis.

Investing During Times of Turmoil
There's recently been a joke making the rounds among traders. "If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs," the jokers say, "you haven't been paying enough attention." This gallows humor generates a few chuckles, but the investing principle that it parodies holds the key to success during times of market turmoil.

It is difficult to avoid buying into a market bubble. No one likes to watch from the sidelines while everyone around them makes money, but history has shown again and again that market bubbles always burst. Some investors may have impeccable timing and may be able to ride the bull to its apex before selling at just the right moment; however, these fortunate souls are rare indeed and their unique talent is probably not a successful recipe for the average investor.

Once a bubble has burst (and they always do) the ensuing decline can be even more emotionally challenging than the bubble itself. While bubbles usually occur over time, crashes can occur with stunning rapidity. During these times, the sense of fear in the market can become so palpable that is easy to understand why some market crashes have been labeled "panics".

All investors experience the emotions of greed and fear during market bubbles and crashes. Recognizing this fact and accepting that markets often behave irrationally can enable an investor to step back and objectively evaluate the financial markets. Successful investors are able to adhere to their investment plans, regardless of the current direction of the herd mentality. In fact, truly great investors often possess the ability to act contrary to the herd. Investors who are willing to sell when others are greedy or buy when others are fearful usually experience great success over the course of their investment careers.

Timeless Investment Lessons

1.Have a plan and stick to it.
There are countless paths to financial success. However, investors that blindly rush from one strategy to another rarely prosper in the long run. Investors who find a plan that they are comfortable with and stick to that plan across market cycles stand a much better chance of reaching their financial goals.


2.Remember that fundamental value always matters in the long run.
Investment valuations often do not reflect fundamental value because the behavior of market participants is commonly irrational. Nevertheless, over time, markets always return to long-run equilibrium. This was demonstrated during the credit crisis by the sharp declines in the value of many previously inflated asset prices. This will also be demonstrated when, over time, the prices of quality assets once again increase to their true values.


3.Always focus on risk management.
Portfolios can carry too much risk, either intentionally or unintentionally. While risk does not have to be avoided, it does have to be managed. This principle is important during crises or bear markets, but it is even more important during bull markets and bubbles.


4.Do not rely on third-party opinions.
Research analysts and credit rating agencies serve valuable functions, but they are not infallible. These resources provide an excellent starting point for conducting investment analysis and building a portfolio. However, successful investors conduct their own independent research in order to verify the opinions of these third-party sources.


5.Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
This lesson is especially important for investors who use leverage. Market valuations often reach absurd levels either on the upside or the downside. While these valuations always return to their proper levels, it may take an exceptionally long time for them to do so. Investors need to decide on their risk tolerance and then adhere to it regardless of the market's seeming irrationality. Doing so will prevent the kinds of catastrophic losses from which investors never recover.


6.Try to separate emotion from action.
It is only natural to experience wide emotional swings during volatile markets. Even the most successful of professional investors grow concerned when markets plummet. The difference between truly successful investors and average investors is that the successful investors do not act on their emotions. They feel their emotions, they acknowledge their emotions, and then they continue to invest according to their long-term plans.


7.Make sure you can pass the "sleep test".
If, outside of market hours, investors finds themselves worried about their investment portfolios, it is likely that they are taking too much risk. Sleepless nights brought about by concern over market declines often indicate that a portfolio would benefit from a reduction in overall risk and a shift to safer assets.

Conclusion
This article has examined important lessons that investors can learn from the financial credit crisis. These lessons are not new; they have always been key principles for long-term investment success. However, during bull markets it is easy to forget the fundamentals. In fact, many investors profit during a bull market regardless of their investment approach. These profits can even wind up providing negative reinforcement for bad habits and can prevent an investor from developing a successful, disciplined, long-term investment strategy. Remember, there is a reason that long-time Wall Street traders like to say "never mistake a bull market for brains".

The key to long-term financial success is not simply to profit during bull markets, but rather to manage a portfolio across market cycles with an aim toward maximizing risk-adjusted returns. Over time, investors who incorporate fundamental investment principles into their strategies will have a much better chance of generating superior risk-adjusted returns With that in mind, if investors use the unprecedented events of the credit crisis to develop a solid understanding of fundamental investment principles, they may one day look back on this difficult period and recognize that it served as the foundation for their future success.

PLAN YOUR TRADE & TRADE YOUR PLAN



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Saturday, December 27, 2008

Crude Oil & Darvas Box

Darvas Box Theory (By Zhuge Liang)

What Does Darvas Box Theory Mean?

A trading strategy that was developed in 1956 by former ballroom dancer Nicolas Darvas. Darvas' trading technique involved buying into stocks that were trading at new 52-week highs with correspondingly high volumes.

A Darvas box is created when the price of a stock rises above the previous 52-week high, but then falls back to a price not far from that high. If the price falls too much, it can be a signal of a false breakout, otherwise the lower price is used as the bottom of the box and the high as the top.

In 1956, Darvas was able to turn an investment of $10,000 into $2 million over an 18-month period. While traveling for his dancing, Darvas would obtain copies of The Wall Street Journal and Barron's, but he would only look at the stock prices to make his decisions. It has been said that Darvas was less happy about the profits that he made than he was about the ease and peace of mind that he got from implementing his system.

Skeptics of Darvas' technique attribute his success to the fact that he was trading in a very bullish market. They also say that returns comparable to the ones he saw can't be attained if this technique is used in a bear market.

For clearer chart click====> HERE

For clearer chart click====> HERE


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Composite Index 26/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 26日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 26/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang


As indicated by A, the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support remains intact. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 800 psychological level. Alternatively, the T1 line is also a support reference.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 4%, suggesting the KLCI is now consolidating. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand again with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish biased signal.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still further below the 40-day VMA level, as it made a 3 years new low; this shows that the overall market participation is still very low. But still, it is considered normal to see lower in volume as the KLCI is still consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still falling while reaching 50% level, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still weakening. But as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, signals from the secondary indicators might be over sensitive. Therefore, the priority of the analysis should be on the primary indicator such as Bollinger Bands.

In short, the KLCI is likely to consolidate, and the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also suggest that the KLCI is gearing up for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement of the KLCI shall be revealed as the Bollinger Bands Width re-expand.


综合指数 2008年 12月 26日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持,所以布林中频带继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线。综指当前的阻力水平是处于887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则落在800点的心理支持水平,另外T1下降趋势线也将继续的成为综指的动态支持线之一。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)继续的收窄4%,这表示综指目前还是处于一个调整巩固的走势里。通常只要综指继续的维持在布林中频带以上的话,那当布林频带再度打开时,那综指将有望再度的转强。
如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量再创下3年来的新低,这显示投资者继续的对市场抱着观望的态度,使到交投量继续的下降。无论如何,这在综指横摆或布林频带收窄时是正常的。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌至50%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势继续的有转弱的现象。惟在布林中频带收窄时,随机指标(或其他短期指标)都会显得过敏,换句话说,目前随机指标的讯号是必须要配合布林频带的讯号,才能作准的。
总的来说,综指在技术调整后,再度的横摆巩固,这显示综指再度的酝酿着一个新趋势,而这新趋势将在布林频带再度打开时出现。

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Friday, December 26, 2008

BUY Genting & Resorts World for Rebound

BUY Genting & Resorts World for Rebound By Zhuge Liang

As for stock picks for today, investors and traders alike may look to buy defensive gaming stocks Genting and Resorts World which are currently on base building mode, in preparation for eventual rebound once market sentiment improves.

DON'T OVERLOOK OTHER SIN STOCKS FOR CNY RALLY


For clearer chart click====> here
For clerear chart click ===>here

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Composite Index 24/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 24日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 24/12/2008 by Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower on Wednesday but remain supported by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the next support is 800 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 21%, suggesting the KLCI is now consolidating, and the market direction shall remain unclear until the expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Wednesday is a 3 year new low, due to festive holidays, as well as uncertain market sentiment. Therefore, the overall market participation is indeed very quiet as investors show no interests in the stock market. Nevertheless, technically speaking, it is rather normal to see lower volume during a consolidation of the KLCI.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, suggesting an end to the short term bullish signal. Unless the Stochastic could return to above 70% level immediately, the falling of the Stochastic line implies a weakening short term movement for the KLCI.

In short, the KLCI is likely to consolidate again as the Bollinger Bands Width begins to contract, and if the KLCI should failed to remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall turn bearish biased.

综合指数 2008年 12月 24日
如图中箭头A所示,在国际市场继续受到经济衰退的影响下而走软,综合指数也稍微回退,惟综指继续的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持,所以布林中频带继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线,阻力水平则继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)进一步收窄21%,这表示综指继续的处于一个调整巩固的格局,直到布林频带再度的打开为止。届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将决定综指下一个趋势的方向。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量创下了3年来的新低水平,这表示投资者在假期来临以及对后市不明朗的情况下,继续的保持观望的态度。无论如何,成交量低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)在布林频带收窄时是正常的,这显示综指目前正在处于一个横摆巩固的格局。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌破了70%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势出现了转弱的迹象,除非随机指标短期内再度重返70%以上为止。

总的来说,综合目前是处于一个调整巩固的格局,若综指接下来继续的能维持在布林中频带的话,那综指还不至于出现跌势,换句话说,若综指跌破布林中频带的话,那综指将有出现下跌的风险了。


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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Xmas Eve Charts >>> GPACKET & MKLAND <<<

Warning : This Is Not A Gift From Santa Claus (by Zhuge Liang)

1) EOD GPACKET

2) EOD MKLAND

Santa ani gif Pictures, Images and Photos



Merry Christmas To All Bursa Chatters from Ah Seng & Zhuge Liang


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Composite Index 23/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 23日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 23/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang


As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower followed by the Monday candlestick with long upper shadow, but the KLCI rebounded precisely at the Bollinger Middle Band, suggesting that the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support for the KLCI, which would also suggest an end to the KLCI technical correction.

Generally, if the KLCI is still supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the positive outlook for the KLCI is likely to continue. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is still at 800 level.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market participation is still low, as investors are still on the sidelines. To confirm the bullish movement of the KLCI, volume must be above the 40-day VMA level.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level marginally on Tuesday. If the Stochastic should return to above 70% level in the near term, the short term bullish signal is still intact. If the Stochastic should continue falling, it would suggest that the short term movement of the KLCI is turning weaker.

In short, the Bollinger Middle Band is the target of the pullback effect, which is also serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. As long as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side.

综合指数 2008年 12月 23日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数在周一出现了一个长上影线(Long Upper Shadow)的阴阳烛后回软,惟综指精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持而回弹。这表示布林中频带这动态支持线继续的成为综指当前的支持水平,而综指的技术调整也已经完成了。

通常只要综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持的话,那综指还是有望的继续转强,若布林频带(Bollinger Band)接下来能配合打开的话,那综指将再度的出现上扬的趋势。综指当前的阻力水平继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则落在800点的心理支撑水平。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量依然低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这表示虽然综指依然出现的转强的迹象,不过投资者在担忧国际市场可能再度动荡的前提下,都以选择旁观者居多。一般上,当综指上扬时,成交量是必须增加至40天平均值的水平,综指的上扬趋势才能算是获得成交量的确认。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌至70%的水平,这表示若随机指标进一步下滑的话,那综指将出现短期的跌势;换句话说,若随机指标接下来能回弹以及保持在70%以上的话,那综指就有望再度的出现转强的格局。

总的来说,综指在布林频带收窄形成的技术调整已经来到了调整的目标:布林中频带,这是综指的支持线,若综指能继续的在此动态支持线上获得扶持,那当布林频带再度打开时,综指将会再度的形成一个上扬的格局。




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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

RANDOM CHARTS GALORE

RANDOM CHARTS GALORE >>> AirAsia, KHSB, MMC, KPS, MRCB, Ranhill, Sapcrest & Tebrau By Zhuge Liang

Tebrau===>Trading View: Buy On Dip for upside RM0.50 (IT) or higher. ===> Stoploss Below RM0.30

SAPCREST===>Trading View : Sell on rally towards RM0.90 (IT) or higher. Stop Loss===> Below RM0.60

Ranhill===>Trading View : Sell on rally towards RM0.80 (IT) or higher. Stop loss===> Below RM0.50


MRCB===> Trading view : buy on dip for upside towards RM0.80 (IT) or higher. Stop loss ==> Below RM0.60



MMC===> Trading View : Buy on dip for upside towards RM1.20 (IT) or higher. Stop loss==> Below RM0.70

KPS===> Trading view : Buy on dip for rebound towards RM1.60 (IT) and higher. Stop loss===> Below RM1.00



KHSB===>Trading View : But on dip for rebound towards RM0.40 (IT) and higher. Stop loss===> RM0.20


AirAsia===> Trading view : buy on dip for upside towards RM1.00 (IT) or higher. Stop loss===> Below RM0.70


maya karin seksi


Composite Index 22/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 22日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 22/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang


As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 887 Fibonacci Retracement resistance line on Monday, but failed to break above it. Therefore, the 887 level shall remain as the resistance for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the KLCI formed a candlestick with a relatively long upper shadow, suggesting some selling pressure as profit taking activities kicked in during the afternoon session. Support for the KLCI is still at 800 points.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 5%, which is not significant. Since the KLCI is pulling back, therefore, the target of the pullback should be at the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market as a whole is still relatively quiet. Therefore, without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still falling, but remain above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, this shows that the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

As the KLCI started to pullback after its gain on last Thursday, the Bollinger Middle Band support will be a crucial level to watch out, for if the KLCI should be supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to continue its improvement. Of course, other factors including the performance of the regional markets will affect the KLCI performance as well.

综合指数 2008年 12月 22日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度上探887点的胜图自动费氏线,惟综指先盛后衰,还是未能成功突破此阻力水平,并形成一个长上影线(Long Uppwer Shadow)的阴阳烛,这显示综指有套利或转弱的风险。综指当期的阻力水平继续的是887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是落在800点,另外T1这下降趋势线也将继续的成为综指的动态支持线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度下降至5%,这表示综指继续的出现技术调整,通常布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)将是综指技术调整的目标,这也是综指的动态支持线之一。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量还是偏低,离开40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)还是有一段距离,这显示市场参与者还是少,这使到综指未能确定综指已经转为上扬的趋势。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续下挫,惟随机指标还是成功的维持在70%以上,这表示综指的短期走势出现技术调整的迹象,惟由于随机指标还未跌破70%,所以综指的短期走势依然是还未真正发出转弱的讯号,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

换句话说,综指有出现短期技术调整的迹象,无论如何,只要综指能守住布林中频带这水平,那综指将有望在布林频带再度打开时而转强,这也正是测量投资者信心的一个指标,当然国际市场的种种因素也将继续的笼罩以及影响综指后市的表现。
najib umno election march 2008
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Sunday, December 21, 2008

Warren Buffett shares his thoughts .......

Warren Buffett shares his thoughts ......
A Must Read For Traders, Investors, Managers & just about anyone



I had the good fortune to attend the 2008- Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha , Nebraska a few weeks back.

It was a wonderful experience listening to and learning from the Master Investor- Warren Buffett himself and all I can say is that he stands alone as the reigning deity of financial world's Mt Olympus!

The degree of humility and composure he exhibited, although he is the richest and most well respected human is stunning!

I tried to take some notes and would like to share with you some of the best questions and answers which came across during the conversation between we mortals and God.

Having read about him, observed him and worshipped him for a few years now, I think it is reasonable to believe that this guy is exactly what he seems: a plain-speaking, tee totalling man of uncrackable integrity who works really, really hard and sticks to his investing and management principles through boom and bust which makes him a freak of nature since he is above normal human tendencies. He is like a comet streaking through the heavens every 75 years or so.

The questions the shareholders threw at him for 7 continuous hours ranged from finances, life, religion, career, politics, sports and several other streams. And he answered everything with a Zen like calm and confidence.

Even if you are least bothered about investments and finances, I insist, please read on................. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?

Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.

When do you deicide to invest in a firm?

The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)

What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?

I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people evenafter selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.

Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?

Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.

When do you plan to retire?

I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!

Why do stock market crashes happen?

Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."

What are the things that are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?

I like such open ended questions, I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Do you still hate Technology stocks?

With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you arespeculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."

How to think about Investing?


The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to saywhen you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."

How do you feel after donating $ 40 Billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation? You are a hero to us!

I feel nothing. I haven't sacrificed anything in life. I have had a good life. I donated after I turned 75. I think I admire those people who sacrifice their time, share their food and home, as the people to be emulated, not me. Besides, what is money before a man's life?

What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?

I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have beenobserving the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.

Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street , New York ?

Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system.

You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started.

My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. Iam lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.

People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?

I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. Iam an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards (Mr. Buffett owns 8% of Coca-Cola and 13 % of American Express). I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.

I am a small time businessman from Dallas , Texas , what do I need to do to hit big time?

Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.

I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?

My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.

Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.

What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?

Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself - that would be my advice..

You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dont you advice them from making such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?

I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.


It was a 7 hour conversation and I could just capture some of the best questions and answers. As 37,000+ dazed, amazed and grateful shareholders trooped out of the stadium after the meeting, I found myself recalling one of my favorite quotes-

"A man has to learn that he cannot command things, but that he can command himself; that he cannot coerce the wills of others, but that he can mold and master his own will: and things serve him who serves truth; people seek guidance of him who is master of himself".
BY ZHUGE LIANG

Composite Index 19/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 19日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI retreated slightly on Friday. Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI is at 915 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 801.27 points, as well s the T1 downtrend line.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 14%, which is somewhat lower if compared to Thursday's expansion rate. But still, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band is still a bullish signal, and provided that the Bollinger Bands Width could still expanding, the bullish Bollinger Bands signal is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 23.1%, and the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that although there are some signs of improvement in the KLCI performance, the overall market sentiment is still very cautious.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated on Friday after hitting 100% on Thursday, but still remain above the 70% level. Therefore, this shows that the short term bullish signal of the Stochastic is still intact. In short, the pull back on Friday is still normal with slightly lower volume. As long as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the brighter side.

综合指数 2008年 12月 19日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数受到 915 点的胜图自动费氏线的阻扰而稍微回调,这是正常的技术调整,这显示 915 点的胜图自动费氏线持续的成为综指当前的阻力水平。综指当前的支持水平则是801.27点胜图自动费氏线,另外T1这下降趋势线也将成为综指的动态支持线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的的幅度减低至14%,所以综指出现了调整的格局。无论如何,综指目前还是处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,所以只要布林频带打开的幅度再度增加,那综指还是有望继续上扬的。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量下降23.1%,所以成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这显示虽然综指开始有转强的迹象,不过投资者还是谨慎的步步为营,选择观望的居多。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在周四达到100%,使到综指在短期超卖的讯号下稍微调整,无论如何,只要随机指标不跌破70%的话,那综指还是有望在技术调整后再度的转强。

总的来说,综指在未获得成交量增加的承托下,出现了技术调整,不过只要综指能维持在布林中频带以上,那综指的后市还是有望看高一线。
Maya Karin

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Saturday, December 20, 2008

EOD DJIA Daily + Weekly + KLCI Daily + E&O

EOD DJIA Daily + Weekly + KLCI Daily + E&O Charts for your perusal.====>By Zhuge Liang





Strategy : Wait one more day

Though our optimism for the KLCI has increased following the breakout of the short term line, we would prefer to wait one more day to see how the Dow behaves before jumping on the bullish bandwagon. If the Dow breaks below its short term line tonight, all of its short term bullish signals will be in vain.

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