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Monday, January 19, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 16日 / Composite Index 16/01/2009

By Zhuge Liang

Composite Index 16/01/2009


As16/01/2009 Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis indicated by A,, the Bollinger Bands Width continue to contract, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, closing only 0.1% lower on Friday. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, the consolidation of the KLCI is expected to continue, while the market direction remains unclear.

As shown on the chart above, support for the KLCI remains at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 900 psychological level as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 9.4%, but the volume is still above the 40-day VMA level, suggested that the overall market is still well-participated. If volume should continue to decline while the KLCI consolidate, it is still considered normal.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is breaking below the 30% level, entering the short term bearish region. If the Stochastic should continue to stay below 30% level, the market movement for the short term is likely to be bearish biased.

To sum up, the performance of the KLCI is sensitive to the performance of major markets across the globe, but still the KLCI is only consolidating for the moment, as the Bollinger Bands Width has not shown any bearish signal.

综合指数 2009年 01月 16日 /


如图中箭头A所示,由于布林频带(Bollinger Band)继续的收窄,所以综合指数基本上出现横摆的现象,只微跌0.1%,通常综指将继续的维持在一个调整巩固的格局中,直到布林频带再度出现明显的打开为止。

如图所示,综指目前的支持水平继续的落在887点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则是900点的心理支持水平以及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)这动态阻力线。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量减少9.4%,所以市场的总交投量还是足够维持在40天的平均值以上,这表示市场还相当活跃的。不过若成交量接下来继续萎缩并且跌破40天平均值的话,那综指将进入了一个交投低迷的格局,那将是综指调整巩固的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌破了30%的水平,这显示综指目前算是处于一个短期下跌的格局,惟这只是一个短期的讯号,综指的中期走势讯号还是未被确认。

总的来说,虽然综指不多不少继续的受到国际市场的影响,不过综指目前已经形成了一个调整巩固的状态,直到布林频带再度的打开为止,惟综指接下来的趋势将取决于综指届时处于布林中频带的相应位置。

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL



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