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Friday, December 26, 2008

Composite Index 24/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 24日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 24/12/2008 by Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower on Wednesday but remain supported by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the next support is 800 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 21%, suggesting the KLCI is now consolidating, and the market direction shall remain unclear until the expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Wednesday is a 3 year new low, due to festive holidays, as well as uncertain market sentiment. Therefore, the overall market participation is indeed very quiet as investors show no interests in the stock market. Nevertheless, technically speaking, it is rather normal to see lower volume during a consolidation of the KLCI.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, suggesting an end to the short term bullish signal. Unless the Stochastic could return to above 70% level immediately, the falling of the Stochastic line implies a weakening short term movement for the KLCI.

In short, the KLCI is likely to consolidate again as the Bollinger Bands Width begins to contract, and if the KLCI should failed to remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall turn bearish biased.

综合指数 2008年 12月 24日
如图中箭头A所示,在国际市场继续受到经济衰退的影响下而走软,综合指数也稍微回退,惟综指继续的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持,所以布林中频带继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线,阻力水平则继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)进一步收窄21%,这表示综指继续的处于一个调整巩固的格局,直到布林频带再度的打开为止。届时综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将决定综指下一个趋势的方向。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量创下了3年来的新低水平,这表示投资者在假期来临以及对后市不明朗的情况下,继续的保持观望的态度。无论如何,成交量低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)在布林频带收窄时是正常的,这显示综指目前正在处于一个横摆巩固的格局。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌破了70%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势出现了转弱的迹象,除非随机指标短期内再度重返70%以上为止。

总的来说,综合目前是处于一个调整巩固的格局,若综指接下来继续的能维持在布林中频带的话,那综指还不至于出现跌势,换句话说,若综指跌破布林中频带的话,那综指将有出现下跌的风险了。


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