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Sunday, December 21, 2008

Composite Index 19/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 19日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI retreated slightly on Friday. Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI is at 915 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 801.27 points, as well s the T1 downtrend line.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 14%, which is somewhat lower if compared to Thursday's expansion rate. But still, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band is still a bullish signal, and provided that the Bollinger Bands Width could still expanding, the bullish Bollinger Bands signal is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 23.1%, and the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that although there are some signs of improvement in the KLCI performance, the overall market sentiment is still very cautious.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated on Friday after hitting 100% on Thursday, but still remain above the 70% level. Therefore, this shows that the short term bullish signal of the Stochastic is still intact. In short, the pull back on Friday is still normal with slightly lower volume. As long as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the brighter side.

综合指数 2008年 12月 19日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数受到 915 点的胜图自动费氏线的阻扰而稍微回调,这是正常的技术调整,这显示 915 点的胜图自动费氏线持续的成为综指当前的阻力水平。综指当前的支持水平则是801.27点胜图自动费氏线,另外T1这下降趋势线也将成为综指的动态支持线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的的幅度减低至14%,所以综指出现了调整的格局。无论如何,综指目前还是处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,所以只要布林频带打开的幅度再度增加,那综指还是有望继续上扬的。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量下降23.1%,所以成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这显示虽然综指开始有转强的迹象,不过投资者还是谨慎的步步为营,选择观望的居多。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在周四达到100%,使到综指在短期超卖的讯号下稍微调整,无论如何,只要随机指标不跌破70%的话,那综指还是有望在技术调整后再度的转强。

总的来说,综指在未获得成交量增加的承托下,出现了技术调整,不过只要综指能维持在布林中频带以上,那综指的后市还是有望看高一线。
Maya Karin

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