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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Composite Index 23/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 23日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 23/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang


As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower followed by the Monday candlestick with long upper shadow, but the KLCI rebounded precisely at the Bollinger Middle Band, suggesting that the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support for the KLCI, which would also suggest an end to the KLCI technical correction.

Generally, if the KLCI is still supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the positive outlook for the KLCI is likely to continue. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is still at 800 level.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market participation is still low, as investors are still on the sidelines. To confirm the bullish movement of the KLCI, volume must be above the 40-day VMA level.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level marginally on Tuesday. If the Stochastic should return to above 70% level in the near term, the short term bullish signal is still intact. If the Stochastic should continue falling, it would suggest that the short term movement of the KLCI is turning weaker.

In short, the Bollinger Middle Band is the target of the pullback effect, which is also serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI. As long as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side.

综合指数 2008年 12月 23日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数在周一出现了一个长上影线(Long Upper Shadow)的阴阳烛后回软,惟综指精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持而回弹。这表示布林中频带这动态支持线继续的成为综指当前的支持水平,而综指的技术调整也已经完成了。

通常只要综指能在布林中频带上获得扶持的话,那综指还是有望的继续转强,若布林频带(Bollinger Band)接下来能配合打开的话,那综指将再度的出现上扬的趋势。综指当前的阻力水平继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则落在800点的心理支撑水平。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量依然低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这表示虽然综指依然出现的转强的迹象,不过投资者在担忧国际市场可能再度动荡的前提下,都以选择旁观者居多。一般上,当综指上扬时,成交量是必须增加至40天平均值的水平,综指的上扬趋势才能算是获得成交量的确认。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌至70%的水平,这表示若随机指标进一步下滑的话,那综指将出现短期的跌势;换句话说,若随机指标接下来能回弹以及保持在70%以上的话,那综指就有望再度的出现转强的格局。

总的来说,综指在布林频带收窄形成的技术调整已经来到了调整的目标:布林中频带,这是综指的支持线,若综指能继续的在此动态支持线上获得扶持,那当布林频带再度打开时,综指将会再度的形成一个上扬的格局。




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