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Saturday, December 27, 2008

Composite Index 26/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 26日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 26/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang


As indicated by A, the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support remains intact. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 800 psychological level. Alternatively, the T1 line is also a support reference.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 4%, suggesting the KLCI is now consolidating. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand again with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish biased signal.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still further below the 40-day VMA level, as it made a 3 years new low; this shows that the overall market participation is still very low. But still, it is considered normal to see lower in volume as the KLCI is still consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still falling while reaching 50% level, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still weakening. But as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, signals from the secondary indicators might be over sensitive. Therefore, the priority of the analysis should be on the primary indicator such as Bollinger Bands.

In short, the KLCI is likely to consolidate, and the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also suggest that the KLCI is gearing up for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement of the KLCI shall be revealed as the Bollinger Bands Width re-expand.


综合指数 2008年 12月 26日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持,所以布林中频带继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线。综指当前的阻力水平是处于887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则落在800点的心理支持水平,另外T1下降趋势线也将继续的成为综指的动态支持线之一。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)继续的收窄4%,这表示综指目前还是处于一个调整巩固的走势里。通常只要综指继续的维持在布林中频带以上的话,那当布林频带再度打开时,那综指将有望再度的转强。
如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量再创下3年来的新低,这显示投资者继续的对市场抱着观望的态度,使到交投量继续的下降。无论如何,这在综指横摆或布林频带收窄时是正常的。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌至50%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势继续的有转弱的现象。惟在布林中频带收窄时,随机指标(或其他短期指标)都会显得过敏,换句话说,目前随机指标的讯号是必须要配合布林频带的讯号,才能作准的。
总的来说,综指在技术调整后,再度的横摆巩固,这显示综指再度的酝酿着一个新趋势,而这新趋势将在布林频带再度打开时出现。

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