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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Composite Index 22/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 22日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 22/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang


As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 887 Fibonacci Retracement resistance line on Monday, but failed to break above it. Therefore, the 887 level shall remain as the resistance for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the KLCI formed a candlestick with a relatively long upper shadow, suggesting some selling pressure as profit taking activities kicked in during the afternoon session. Support for the KLCI is still at 800 points.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 5%, which is not significant. Since the KLCI is pulling back, therefore, the target of the pullback should be at the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market as a whole is still relatively quiet. Therefore, without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still falling, but remain above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, this shows that the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

As the KLCI started to pullback after its gain on last Thursday, the Bollinger Middle Band support will be a crucial level to watch out, for if the KLCI should be supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to continue its improvement. Of course, other factors including the performance of the regional markets will affect the KLCI performance as well.

综合指数 2008年 12月 22日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度上探887点的胜图自动费氏线,惟综指先盛后衰,还是未能成功突破此阻力水平,并形成一个长上影线(Long Uppwer Shadow)的阴阳烛,这显示综指有套利或转弱的风险。综指当期的阻力水平继续的是887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是落在800点,另外T1这下降趋势线也将继续的成为综指的动态支持线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度下降至5%,这表示综指继续的出现技术调整,通常布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)将是综指技术调整的目标,这也是综指的动态支持线之一。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量还是偏低,离开40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)还是有一段距离,这显示市场参与者还是少,这使到综指未能确定综指已经转为上扬的趋势。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续下挫,惟随机指标还是成功的维持在70%以上,这表示综指的短期走势出现技术调整的迹象,惟由于随机指标还未跌破70%,所以综指的短期走势依然是还未真正发出转弱的讯号,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

换句话说,综指有出现短期技术调整的迹象,无论如何,只要综指能守住布林中频带这水平,那综指将有望在布林频带再度打开时而转强,这也正是测量投资者信心的一个指标,当然国际市场的种种因素也将继续的笼罩以及影响综指后市的表现。
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