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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Composite Index 22/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 22日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 22/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 887 Fibonacci Retracement resistance line on Monday, but failed to break above it. Therefore, the 887 level shall remain as the resistance for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the KLCI formed a candlestick with a relatively long upper shadow, suggesting some selling pressure as profit taking activities kicked in during the afternoon session. Support for the KLCI is still at 800 points.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 5%, which is not significant. Since the KLCI is pulling back, therefore, the target of the pullback should be at the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market as a whole is still relatively quiet. Therefore, without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still falling, but remain above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, this shows that the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

As the KLCI started to pullback after its gain on last Thursday, the Bollinger Middle Band support will be a crucial level to watch out, for if the KLCI should be supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to continue its improvement. Of course, other factors including the performance of the regional markets will affect the KLCI performance as well.

综合指数 2008年 12月 22日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度上探887点的胜图自动费氏线,惟综指先盛后衰,还是未能成功突破此阻力水平,并形成一个长上影线(Long Uppwer Shadow)的阴阳烛,这显示综指有套利或转弱的风险。综指当期的阻力水平继续的是887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是落在800点,另外T1这下降趋势线也将继续的成为综指的动态支持线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度下降至5%,这表示综指继续的出现技术调整,通常布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)将是综指技术调整的目标,这也是综指的动态支持线之一。



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