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Monday, November 24, 2008

Having a plan / 综合指数 2008年 11月 21日 / Composite Index 21/11/2008

HAVING A PLAN BY ZHUGE LIANG

What is your plan for tomorrow, next week, next month...? Can you make money in the worst case scenario? Will you be able to make money if the KLCI goes up 100 points, drops 100 points or remain the same. If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail. Don't be irresponsible with your money..

PLAN YOUR TRADE & TRADE YOUR PLAN

In football, you don't just go out and hope your opponents to beat themselves. You prepare dilligently for every game, for every season and always have a strategy. If A happens I would do X, if B happens I would do Y and if C happens I would do Z >>>>>> any which way but lose.

Trading is not very different. Market are made from people. Every day you go out and compete against guys and gals, who have more experience, better skills, bigger capital and access to more sophisticated technology. What are the odds you could beat them without having a strategy, without having a plan to follow?


You should not care where the market is going. All you should care about is what you are going to do if the market goes there.


WITHOUT ANY TRADING STRATEGIES, YOU ARE AS GOOD AS A MOVING TARGET IN A SHOOTING GALLERY.



HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL



综合指数 2008年 11月 21日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数早盘一度受美国道琼斯创下68个月新低的影响下而滑落,无论如何,综指随后反弹,微扬1.56点。综指当前的阻力水平继续的维持在887点,支持水平则是800点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示,综指始终处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,这意味综指还是有走软的迹象,所幸的是布林频带(Bollinger Band)只打开9%,并未真正明显的打开。换句话说,若布林频带接下来明显的打开,而综指还是未能上扬至布林中频带以上的话,那综指将确认形成一个跌势。
如图中箭头B所示,成交量再度上扬至40天的成交量移动平均线(VMA)水平以上,这表示投资者乘亚太区域股市股市纷纷回弹时进场交易。通常若成交量能维持在40天平均值以上的话,那这对综指出现在反弹或转强时是有利的。
如图中C圈指示,随机指标(Stochastic)目前还是低于30%,这显示综指的短期走势仍然是属于跌势中。无论如何,当综指出现技术回弹时,随机指标将是第一个发出讯号的,那就是当随机指标上扬突破平30%,这就是综指短期走势转强的迹象,所以随机指标将继续的成为我们关注的指标。
总的来说,综指目前仍然是处于T1及T2的跌势中,不过若随机指标接下来能上扬突破30%,而综指也能上扬至布林中频带以上的话,那综指的后市将有望看高一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 21/11/2008
As indicated by A, the KLCI opened lower again in the early session as affected by the over night losses in the US markets. However, the KLCI managed to regain its early losses and closed 1.56 points higher. Resistance for the KLCI remains at the 887 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is still at 800 points.

As shown on the chart, the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the negative side. On Friday, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 9%, which is still not significant, but if the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expands with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside risk for the KLCI is expected.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased and returned to above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests some increase of some buying interests as the Asian markets rebound in the afternoon. Generally, if the KLCI should continue to rebound with volume above the 40-day VMA level, it would be a positive sign for the KLCI.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30% level, suggesting the short term movement for the KLCI is still bearish biased. However, if the Stochastic should break above 30% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound.

In short, the KLCI remains in the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, but if the Stochastic should break above 30% level, with the KLCI returning to above the Bollinger Middle Band, chances for the KLCI in breaking above the downtrend channel is generally higher.


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