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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Composite Index 30/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 30日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 30/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded precisely above the Bollinger Middle Band on Tuesday, closing 1.6% higher. As a result, the Bollinger Bands Width also begins to expand, suggesting some bullish biased signal for the KLCI. However, the KLCI is still capped by the 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement resistance, and the next resistance would be at the 900 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Middle Band continues to serve as the dynamic support for the KLCI, and as long as the KLCI is still supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. As the KLCI steered away from the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, it is likely to break away from the downtrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Tuesday increased 44.4%, but still further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still relative insufficient, as most investors are still on the sidelines. In short, volume must increase to confirm the KLCI bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above the 70% level again on Tuesday, entering the short term bullish region.. If the Stochastic should remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is likely to be bullish biased.

The Bollinger Bands Width expanded 10% on Tuesday, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, suggesting a bullish biased signal for the KLCI.
As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, the bullish movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.


综合指数 2008年 12月 30日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持再加上布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始打开,所以综指开始回弹,上扬1.6%。无论如何887点的胜图自动费氏线仍然是综指的阻力水平,综指必须先上扬突破此阻力,综指才有望上探900点的关口。

如图所示,布林频带将继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线,通常只要综指能继续的维持在布林中频带以上的话,那综指将有望更上一层楼。另一方面,综指继续的远离T1及T2的下降趋势轨道,这表示综指目前正处于一个摆脱下降趋势的格局。

如图中箭头B所示,马股的总成交量增长44.4%,不过成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线的水平,这显示市场的参与者还是不全面,所以交投量有待进一步改善,那综指上扬的动力才会更强大。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)迅速回弹至70%以上了,这表示综指的短期走势再度的回到上扬的格局。一般上,只要随机指标能继续的处于70%以上的话,那综指短期走势继续转强的机会将提高。

图中布林频带打开的幅度为10%,所以布林频带还是有相当不错的打开空间,换句话说,只要布林频带接下来继续打开,那综指将继续有望上扬,直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。



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