MAYBANK / AMMB / 综合指数 2009年 01月 07日 / Composite Index 07/01/09

By Zhuge Liang

Maybank (RM5.60)
Support : 5.00 Resistance : 5.85
Cut Loss : 5.15 (7.2% below current price)

Maybank has now broken upwards from its short term MAV line. As Maybank has not moved up much from its October low (17%), its downside can be considered relatively limited at this point of time.

AMMB (RM2.66)
Support : 2.40 Resistance : 3.00
Cut Loss : 2.45 (6.8% below current price)

AMMB has a good restructuring story to tell when it turned around and made healthy profits in the last few quarters (total Net profit of RM433 million in last 2 quarters). We don’t see many roadblocks ahead with the exception of the 3.00 resistance level which is an implied 14% of technical upside ahead in the short term for AMMB.

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综合指数 2009年 01月 07日

如图中箭头A所示，虽然综合指数再度微涨5.39点，不过综指形成了一个黑体的小阴阳烛，这表示市场的买卖双方达到了平衡的迹象。换句话说，综指买方开始缓和下来，而套利的卖方则开始有增加的迹象，这表示综指接下来有技术调整的可能。

如图所示，10天布林频带（Bollinger Band）打开的幅度继续的减少至19%，这表示综指的上扬趋势也有缓慢下来的痕迹，这是因为综指已经开始出现了套利及技术调整的现象。无论如何，只要综指能成功的维持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上的话，那综指还是有望维持在上扬的格局，等待另一轮的时机。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指上扬，不过马股的总成交量再度的减少2.9%，惟成交量依然能维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这意味着市场还是处于一个活跃及健康的交易水平。

如图中箭头C所示，由于随机指标（Stochastic）稍微下滑，不过还是能维持在70%以上，这显示综指的短期上扬动力稍微减退，不过只要随机指标一日还是维持在70%以上的话，那综指仍然算是处于短期上扬的格局里。

总的来说，综指出现了技术调整的迹象，惟综指目前还是属于一个短期上扬的格局，除非综指跌破了布林中频带。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 07/01/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 5.39 points higher on Wednesday, and formed a mixed candlestick, suggesting an uncertain market direction as some profit taking activities took place. As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding 19%, but if compared to the previous trading days, the Bollinger Bands Width expansion rate is slowing down, suggesting the KLCI upside volatility is also declining. But still, as long as the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 2.9%, while still staying above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated. Therefore, technically speaking the market participation is still at a healthy level.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still falling but still above the 70% level. As long as the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still on the positive side. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. In short, the KLCI is showing some sign of profit taking, but the short term bullish biased view is still intact.

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