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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Tebrau / 综合指数 2009年 01月 06日 / Composite Index 06/01/2009

By Zhuge Liang

TEBRAU
Tebrau (RM0.480)
Support : 0.450 Resistance : 0.550
Cut Loss : 0.450 (7.2% below current price)

Tebrau saw a huge inflow of speculative trading volume yesterday. Going forward to March, Tebrau might be a good proxy to ride the UMNO Elections play. The support is pegged at the 0.45 level while the resistance is pegged at the 0.55 level
which is November’s high. Wait for a 6%-10% correction today before taking any trading positions.




综合指数 2009年 01月 06日

如图中箭头A所示,由于综合指数超越了20天布林频带(Bollinger Band),所以综指出现了布林拉回效应(Bollinger Pull Back Effect),使到综指面对布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的拉力而出现技术调整。其实这也意味着综指在上扬了一度时日后,出现了套利活动的现象。

综指当前的支持水平为布林中频带的动态支持线及920点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则是972点的胜图自动费氏线。另外,由于综指继续的远离T1及T2的下降轨道(Descending Trend Channel),所以综指有继续转强的可能。

如图中箭头B所示,虽然马股的总成交量减少9.5%,不过成交量依然成功的维持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这表示只要综指也能维持在布林中频带以上的话,那综指将有望继续的转强。

如图中箭头C所示,由于随机指标(Stochastic)周一达到了100%的水平,这显示市场开始有短期超买的现象,所以综指周二出现了技术调整。无论如何,只要随机指标一日未跌破70%的话,那综指的短期的走势还是属于上扬的格局。

总的来说,综指上扬的趋势出现了一个技术调整的现象,不过只要综指能继续的维持在布林中频带以上,再加上足够的成交量(高于40天平均值),那综指将有望维持目前上扬的格局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 06/01/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI pulled back after hitting above the 20-day Bollinger Upper Band, which suggested an over-bought signal for the KLCI. The pull-back effect is a form a technical correction, and it is considered normal after a rally.

Immediate support for the KLCI is still at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support as well as the 920 level, while the resistance is at 972 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Meanwhile, as the KLCI is moving further away from the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, it is likely to form a new trend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 9.5%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still active. As long as the KLCI is still supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the positive movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic started to retreat after hitting 100%, which is a sign of over-heating. However, as long as the Stochastic could remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased. In short, the criteria for the KLCI to maintain its upside movement are volume above the 40-day VMA level and the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band.


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