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Thursday, January 22, 2009

Bursa-Chat Market Views 22/01/09 / Share Buy Back 21/01/09

By Zhuge Liang
Bursa-Chat Market Views - 22 Jan 09

Expect Spill-over Selling From Wall Street, KLCI Downside To 853 Anticipation

The recent losses on overnight US stocks should filter through to further depress sentiment in the Asian region and the local market, hence investors can expect another bleak trading session from the onset today. KLCI is likely to dip towards 869, the 50% retracement support of the upswing from 801 low to 936 high, with stronger support seen at 853, the 61.8% retracement level.

Immediate resistance is at 890, the previous day’s closing, with stronger hurdle at the psychological 900 level.

SELL Banks & Blue Chips; Buy on Sharp Dip Lower Liners
Given the severe fall on overnight US stocks led by financials on increased fears banks will need more funds to recapitalize or face nationalization, spill-over selling into local banking stocks is a distinct possibility today, hence our revision to SELL AMMB, BCHB, and Maybank. Blue chips such as Sime Darby, TM and TMI remains SELL. On the other hand, while lower liner construction related stocks such as MRCB, Ranhill, UEM Land, WCT and Zelan should also extend downward corrections, we view this as an opportunity to Buy on Sharp Dips as conditions will become grossly oversold, hence paving the way for technical rebound gains going forward.

Composite Index Futures (FKLI)
Spot month January KLCI futures contract gapped 13.5 points down to open at 865.0 on Wednesday, fell from high of 875.0 on renewed selling pressure in the afternoon to low of 864.5 after lunchbreak with some recovery before closing -5.5 points or -0.6% down at 873.0. Trading volume dipped moderately to total 6048 versus previous day's 6,846 contracts.

The gap-down to trade below the 30-day SMA yesterday is bearish, with the slight discount to cash implying further weakness in the short-term. Immediate support is revised lower to 860, reinforced by the upper band of the downtrend channel from April 2008 and the lower Bollinger band, while immediate resistance is adjusted to 900. The only positive is the persistently oversold reading on daily slow stochastics signaling technical rebound potential.



# FKLI Spot Chart >>>>>

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