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By Zhuge Liang
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综合指数 2009年 01月 22日
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数出现一个小技术回弹，这使到综指微扬0.6%。如图所示，综指形成一个小十字阴阳烛，这显示综指其实全日出现买方及卖方势均力敌的角力，通常这显示市场对综指的后市仍然感到不明朗所致。综指当前的阻力水平继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则分别是869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）开始收窄3%，这表示综指下跌的趋势继续的缓和下来，并且有技术回弹的迹象。无论如何，综指还是必须上扬突破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），那综指才能算是结束了这一轮的跌势。
如图中箭头B所示，成交量稍微增加1.5%，所以成交量依然是处于40天平均值以下，这表示市场目前还是属于一个比较淡静的格局，通常在出现低成交量时，综指只是处于一个调整巩固或横摆的格局。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）%K交割了%D，所以综指出现了周三提到的技术反弹，无论如何，随机指标还是必须上扬突破30%，综指的短期走势才能算是出现短期的转强的趋势。
总的来说，综指在出现了短期超卖后（随机指标跌至0%）的技术反弹，不过综指依然是需要上扬至布林中频带以上的水平，那综指才能算是真正的避开这跌势，不然这转强只能算是纯技术反弹而已。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis, 22/01/2009
On Thursday, the KLCI had a minor rebound, closing 0.6% higher as indicated by A. The KLCI formed a doji (Cross) candlestick, suggesting that the market movement on Thursday was mixed, as the direction of the KLCI remains unclear. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still seen at 869 followed by 853 Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 3%, suggesting the KLCI is likely to consolidate. But still, in order to break away from the bearish biased movement, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.5%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This show that the market overall is still lightly participated as many investors are still staying on the sidelines as the festive holiday is drawing closer. Nevertheless, the lower volume during a consolidation market is considered normal.
As circled at C, the Stochastic %K line successfully crossed above the %D line, as mentioned on Wednesday's analysis, implying a possible technical rebound in the near future. But still, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level in order to signal a beginning of a technical rebound.
In conclusion, the KLCI rebounded slightly after being over-sold (Stochastic hitting 0%), but still remain below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased, and the rebound on Thursday is only considered as a technical rebound.
HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数出现一个小技术回弹，这使到综指微扬0.6%。如图所示，综指形成一个小十字阴阳烛，这显示综指其实全日出现买方及卖方势均力敌的角力，通常这显示市场对综指的后市仍然感到不明朗所致。综指当前的阻力水平继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则分别是869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）开始收窄3%，这表示综指下跌的趋势继续的缓和下来，并且有技术回弹的迹象。无论如何，综指还是必须上扬突破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），那综指才能算是结束了这一轮的跌势。
如图中箭头B所示，成交量稍微增加1.5%，所以成交量依然是处于40天平均值以下，这表示市场目前还是属于一个比较淡静的格局，通常在出现低成交量时，综指只是处于一个调整巩固或横摆的格局。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）%K交割了%D，所以综指出现了周三提到的技术反弹，无论如何，随机指标还是必须上扬突破30%，综指的短期走势才能算是出现短期的转强的趋势。
总的来说，综指在出现了短期超卖后（随机指标跌至0%）的技术反弹，不过综指依然是需要上扬至布林中频带以上的水平，那综指才能算是真正的避开这跌势，不然这转强只能算是纯技术反弹而已。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis, 22/01/2009
On Thursday, the KLCI had a minor rebound, closing 0.6% higher as indicated by A. The KLCI formed a doji (Cross) candlestick, suggesting that the market movement on Thursday was mixed, as the direction of the KLCI remains unclear. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still seen at 869 followed by 853 Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 3%, suggesting the KLCI is likely to consolidate. But still, in order to break away from the bearish biased movement, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.5%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This show that the market overall is still lightly participated as many investors are still staying on the sidelines as the festive holiday is drawing closer. Nevertheless, the lower volume during a consolidation market is considered normal.
As circled at C, the Stochastic %K line successfully crossed above the %D line, as mentioned on Wednesday's analysis, implying a possible technical rebound in the near future. But still, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level in order to signal a beginning of a technical rebound.
In conclusion, the KLCI rebounded slightly after being over-sold (Stochastic hitting 0%), but still remain below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased, and the rebound on Thursday is only considered as a technical rebound.
HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL
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