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Friday, January 23, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 22日 / Composite Index 22/01/2009

By Zhuge Liang

综合指数 2009年 01月 22日


如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始收窄3%,这表示综指下跌的趋势继续的缓和下来,并且有技术回弹的迹象。无论如何,综指还是必须上扬突破布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),那综指才能算是结束了这一轮的跌势。




Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis, 22/01/2009

On Thursday, the KLCI had a minor rebound, closing 0.6% higher as indicated by A. The KLCI formed a doji (Cross) candlestick, suggesting that the market movement on Thursday was mixed, as the direction of the KLCI remains unclear. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still seen at 869 followed by 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 3%, suggesting the KLCI is likely to consolidate. But still, in order to break away from the bearish biased movement, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.5%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This show that the market overall is still lightly participated as many investors are still staying on the sidelines as the festive holiday is drawing closer. Nevertheless, the lower volume during a consolidation market is considered normal.

As circled at C, the Stochastic %K line successfully crossed above the %D line, as mentioned on Wednesday's analysis, implying a possible technical rebound in the near future. But still, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level in order to signal a beginning of a technical rebound.

In conclusion, the KLCI rebounded slightly after being over-sold (Stochastic hitting 0%), but still remain below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased, and the rebound on Thursday is only considered as a technical rebound.


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