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Thursday, January 22, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 21日 / Composite Index 21/01/2009

By Zhuge Liang


综合指数 2009年 01月 21日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数进一步下滑,使到综指继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线阻力线以下,所以887点继续的成为综指当前的主要阻力水平,支持水平则分别是869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开17%,再加上综指处于布林中频带以下,所以综指继续的下滑。由于布林频带打开的幅度有减少的迹象,这显示综指下跌的趋势也有缓和下来的痕迹,无论如何综指将继续的处于下跌的趋势中,直到布林频开始出现收窄的情形为止。

如图中箭头B所示,虽然成交量只稍微下跌2.5%,不过成交量已经处于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以下了,所以整体市场继续的属于一个调整的格局中。由于缺乏交投量,虽然这表示综指通常不会出现暴跌的情形,不过综指还是有缓缓下滑的风险。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在触及0%后回弹,若%K线交割%D线的话,那综指的短期将有出现转强的迹象,而当%K上扬突破30%时,那将确认综指出现了短期的技术反弹。

总的来说,综指目前仍然是属于一个下跌的趋势中,惟随机指标显示综指有出现技术反弹的迹象,不过这一切都有待随机指标及布林频带进一步的确认。


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 21/01/2009

On Wednesday, the KLCI continued its decline, breaking below the 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement level, and therefore, the 887 Fibonacci Retracement is now the immediate resistance line for the KLCI, while the next support is at 860 and 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 17% on Wednesday, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the bearish biased movement of the KLCI remains intact. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 2.5%, and still remain below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market participation is still low. With the market lightly participated, the KLCI is less like to regain its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded after hitting 0% level, and about to cross above the %D line. If the %K line crosses above the %D line, it is usually implying a technical rebound is likely to take place. But still, the Stochastic has to break above the 30% level to signal a beginning of a technical rebound. To sum up, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased, despite a slightly implication of a possible technical rebound from the Stochastic.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL


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