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Thursday, November 13, 2008

KNM 7164 / Composite Index 12/11/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 11月 12日

KNM 7164

Stock Reviews & Commentaries By Zhuge Liang

KNM shares were sold down to extreme lows of 39sen and 41.5sen on 16 and 28 October respectively, before bouncing back to build immediate support above 60sen (IS) this month. In spite of the overbought daily slow stochastics signal, recent strength has improved upside momentum, as reflected by the positive daily MACD indicator. A strong close above the 30-day SMA (80sen) will boost upside towards the immediate downtrend resistance lines at the 90sen immediate target (IT). Next target is RM1.00


Support level IS RM0.67

S1 RM0.60


Stop-Loss Below SL RM0.55

Upside Target IT RM0.90
T1 RM1.00
T2 RM1.15

RECOMMENDATION :
Buy On Dip for rebound to 90 sen target.

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Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 12/11/2008

On Wednesday, the KLCI ended 4.26 points lower as drag by the negative performance of the Dow Jones and regional markets. As indicated by A, the KLCI is now precisely supported at the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 940 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 14%, suggesting the KLCI is still in its consolidation stage, and the market direction is still unclear.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 33%, but volume is still above the 40-day VMA level. Generally, the overall market participation is still healthy. However, if the KLCI should continue its sideways consolidation, a decline of volume is usually normal.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, suggesting an end to the short term bullish movement. If the Stochastic should failed to return to above 70% level, the short term movement for the KLCI is likely to turn weak.

In short, the KLCI is consolidating now, thus the short term bullish movement has ended. At the moment, we are still waiting for the Bollinger Bands Width expansion signal, which would mark a beginning of a new movement, and we shall be able to determine the new direction for the KLCI with its position above or below the Bollinger Middle Band when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.



综合指数 2008年 11月 12日

亚太股市继续受到美国道琼斯指数下滑的拖累而下挫,综合指数也受到影响,这使到综指滑落4.26点。如图中箭头A所示,综指精确的在887点的胜图自动费氏线获得支持,这是综指当前的支持水平,阻力水平则依然是940点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)收窄14%,这表示综指目前继续的处于一个横摆巩固的格局里,通常综指将会一直维持在此趋势,直到布林频带再度明显的打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量减低33%,惟成交量还是成功的维持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这意味市场还是相当的活跃。不过若综指持续出现横摆或布林频带继续收窄的话,那成交量跌破40天平均值是正常的。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)跌破了70%的水平,这显示综指的短期走势有出现转弱的迹象。换句话说,若随机指标短期内未能回弹至70%的话,那综指的短期走势将有继续走软的可能。

总的来说,综指目前出现横摆巩固的格局,所以综指的短期讯号显示综指上扬的趋势暂时结束了。通常在这情形下,我们都会等待布林频带再度打开,因为在布林频带再度打开时,综指将结束目前的横摆的僵局,而出现新的趋势,惟新的趋势将由届时综指处于布林中频带的位置来决定。

HAPPY TRADING FOLKS & GOODLUCK2ALL

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