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Friday, November 14, 2008

Gold Bug / Composite Index 13/11/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 11月 13日

Gold Bug By Zhuge Liang
An individual that is bullish on gold. Gold bugs believe that gold is still a stable source of wealth like it was during the years of the gold standard international currency system. A gold bug invests in gold for what he or she perceives as financial security in the event of a currency devaluation, and often also believes that the price of gold will continue to rise in the future. The term also refers to analysts who consistently recommend gold buys.


Gold bugs view gold as a safe investment that will protect them from currency fluctuations or downturns in the financial markets. Although gold is widely known as a standard of value, its price - like that of any other precious metal or commodity - fluctuates widely. For example, the price of gold declined from more than $800/oz in the 1980s to less than $350/oz in the 1990s. This is a point frequently brought up by critics, who view gold as a standard of wealth from the past.

However, while there is no consensus, the market does continue to view gold as the traditional "safe harbor" during times of economic crisis. For example, following September 11, 2001, gold prices saw sharp increases as investors sold what they believed were riskier assets

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 13/11/2008 By Zhuge Liang
Again, in line with the negative performance of the Asian markets followed by an over-night losses of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, the KLCI ended 1.1% lower on Thursday, breaking below the 887 Fibonacci Retracement support line. (As indicated by A). Therefore, the 887 level is now the resistance level, and the support for the KLCI is now at 868 followed by the 800 points, which is the target level for the Head and Shoulders Top pattern..

As shown on the chart, the KLCI also break below the Bollinger Middle Band, and fortunately, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting (-30%), which suggests the KLCI is still consolidating. In other words, the direction for the KLCI is still unclear for it is gearing up for a new movement..

As indicated by B, total market volume fell 16.4%, and the volume was slightly below the 40-day VMA level. However, since the KLCI is still consolidating, the lower volume in general is still considered normal.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains falling, breaking below the 50% level. This shows that the KLCI short term movement is weakening.

Nevertheless, with the Bollinger Bands Width still contracting, the KLCI is expected to consolidate until the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width. If the KLCI should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands Width expands, it would be a bearish biased signal. However, if the KLCI should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands Width expands, it would be a bullish biased signal.
综合指数 2008年 11月 13日

亚太股市继续受到华尔街下跌的影响而下挫,综合指数也进一步下跌1.1%,并且跌破了887点的23.6%胜图自动费氏线的支持水平(参考箭头A),这使到887点反过来成为综指接下来的阻力水平了,综指当前的支持水平则落在800点的胜图自动费氏线,这也是综指跌破头肩顶颈线(Head & Shoulders' Neckline)的目标,所以综指有望在此水平获得一定的支持力量。

如图所示,综指也跌破了布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),所以综指有转弱的迹象,可幸的是布林频带(Bollinger Band)进一步收窄30%,这表示综指并未确认任何趋势。通常在布林频带收窄时,这表示综指正处于一个巩固的格局里。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量进一步减少16.4%,使到成交量稍微低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这表示市场在不明朗的因素下,交投量减低至40天平均值以下了。无论如何,这情形在布林频带收窄或综指巩固时是正常的。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续下滑,跌破了50%,这表示综指的短期走势继续的转弱,暗示综指有再度下跌的可能。

无论如何,由于布林频带收窄,这表示综指正在酝酿着一个新的趋势,惟我们必须等到布林频带再度打开时,才能确认综指新趋势的方向。通常当布林频带打开时,综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将是综指的新趋势,换句话说,综指届时必须处于布林中频带以上,那综指才能避免再度的形成跌势。

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