Technical | Fundamental Analysis Discussion Stocks Listed In Bursa

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Death Of Fundamental Buy & Hold? / 综合指数 2008年 11月 11日

The Death Of Fundamental Buy and Hold? By Zhuge Liang

The five stages of death are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally, acceptance. We bring it up, because right now, BURSA is really struggling with that last one, acceptance.

We’re talking about the death of that time honored investment strategy, buy-and-hold. Investors just can't let go, but they need to.

Thanks to black October, the KLCI has now lost a pretty big chunk of its value over the last douple of years. According to one senior analyst, "2008 is the year that will go down in history as the year that long term investment died as a thesis."

And that means it’s time to move on.

But just because buy-and-hold is pretty much dead and buried, that doesn't mean you can't make money anymore.

Just like the widow who gets a second chance at happiness, financial planners are rediscovering an old love. It’s called diversification. And it could make investors very happy for a long time to come.

All the traders think that you shouldn't go into a stock before knowing when you'll get out of it.

Maybe you sell if it goes up 10% or maybe you wait for it to double, but you should always know when to take some profits off the table.

"It’s very important to take profits in trades," adds a CIMB remisier, . "You can’t be in a market like this and asleep at the switch."

"Buying and holding isn’t going to make you money anytime soon," says another.. "Whether you’re looking at TM, TENAGA, GENTING, RESORTS or PBB don’t just hold on hoping to see new highs." If you do ZL thinks you'll be holding on for quite a long time.

"Yes, you’re going to pay more taxes and more to your broker if you take profits more frequently, but you have to take your trades when you have to take your trades."

"Even local funds managers are getting in and out of trades," adds another broker from OSK "In fact, they plays both RESORTS & IOICorp plays like a fiddle," although they does it with some leverages.

Wha's the bottom line?

"Don't go into a stock without knowing when to take profits."

SEE$$$TAKE$$$ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

综合指数 2008年 11月 11日


如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度为0%,这表示综指目前还是处于一个横摆巩固的格局内,通常综指是要等到布林频带开始明显的打开,那综指才会出现一个新的趋势,届时综指处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的相应位置将决定综指新趋势的方向。




Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 11/11/2008

As indicated by A, the KLCI retreated slightly on Tuesday, and failed to break the 900 level. Therefore, support for the KLCI is at 887 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement).

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expands 0%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating while the direction for the KLCI remains unclear. Generally, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a positive signal.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 11.5%, and still firmly above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, this shows that the market is well-participated. In general, volume above the 40-day VMA level is usually a positive element for the KLCI performance.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now touching 70% level. If the Stochastic should failed to rebound and return to above 70% level, it would end the short term bullish signal. Which means a beginning of a technical correction.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Middle Band is pointing upward, which implies that the current consolidation is likely to be bullish biased. But still, our local market performance is still widely affected by the performance of regional markets, and therefore, we have to monitor the performance of other world major indices.


DJIA Short term rally has a chance - despite 10% plunge

11th November: The US markets dropped ten percent in two days last week. Despite the magnitude of the fall, new lows were modest.. (See the chart attached.) This suggests that most stocks were merely pulling back a bit after rallying the previous week. They were not trending lower. Thus there is still a chance that the market could enjoy a short term rally, provided new lows remain modest (around 100 or less) this week. Various bottoming scenarios below are just guesses. We cannot make sensible predictions at this stage where long term charts merely show a vertical drop.

No comments:

For New UBER users, Get RM15 off