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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Death Of Fundamental Buy & Hold? / 综合指数 2008年 11月 11日

The Death Of Fundamental Buy and Hold? By Zhuge Liang

The five stages of death are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally, acceptance. We bring it up, because right now, BURSA is really struggling with that last one, acceptance.

We’re talking about the death of that time honored investment strategy, buy-and-hold. Investors just can't let go, but they need to.

Thanks to black October, the KLCI has now lost a pretty big chunk of its value over the last douple of years. According to one senior analyst, "2008 is the year that will go down in history as the year that long term investment died as a thesis."

And that means it’s time to move on.

But just because buy-and-hold is pretty much dead and buried, that doesn't mean you can't make money anymore.

Just like the widow who gets a second chance at happiness, financial planners are rediscovering an old love. It’s called diversification. And it could make investors very happy for a long time to come.

All the traders think that you shouldn't go into a stock before knowing when you'll get out of it.

Maybe you sell if it goes up 10% or maybe you wait for it to double, but you should always know when to take some profits off the table.

"It’s very important to take profits in trades," adds a CIMB remisier, . "You can’t be in a market like this and asleep at the switch."

"Buying and holding isn’t going to make you money anytime soon," says another.. "Whether you’re looking at TM, TENAGA, GENTING, RESORTS or PBB don’t just hold on hoping to see new highs." If you do ZL thinks you'll be holding on for quite a long time.

"Yes, you’re going to pay more taxes and more to your broker if you take profits more frequently, but you have to take your trades when you have to take your trades."

"Even local funds managers are getting in and out of trades," adds another broker from OSK "In fact, they plays both RESORTS & IOICorp plays like a fiddle," although they does it with some leverages.

Wha's the bottom line?

"Don't go into a stock without knowing when to take profits."

SEE$$$TAKE$$$ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


综合指数 2008年 11月 11日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数稍微调整,回吐了周一的涨幅,虽然综指跌破了900点的心理支持水平,不过综指还是成功的维持在887点的23.6%胜图自动费氏线以上,所以887点继续的成为综指当前的支持水平,阻力水平则是940点的38.2%胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度为0%,这表示综指目前还是处于一个横摆巩固的格局内,通常综指是要等到布林频带开始明显的打开,那综指才会出现一个新的趋势,届时综指处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的相应位置将决定综指新趋势的方向。

如图中箭头B所示,虽然综指下滑,不过马股成交量增长11..5%,使到成交量仍然成功的维持在40天成交量移动平均线以上的水平,这显示了整体市场仍然属于活跃的,这对综指在出现上扬时是有利的一个因素。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)下滑至70%的水平,这显示若综指短期内还未有回弹现象的话,那随机指标将跌破70%的水平,那综指的短期上扬趋势将有结束的可能。

如图所示,由于布林中频带继续有向上翘的迹象,这暗示综指在布林频带再度打开时有继续上扬的迹象。无论如何,由于我国股市继续受到外围因素的影响,所以虽然综指有望继续的转强,不过我们只能以谨慎的看待综指的后市。


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 11/11/2008

As indicated by A, the KLCI retreated slightly on Tuesday, and failed to break the 900 level. Therefore, support for the KLCI is at 887 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement).

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expands 0%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating while the direction for the KLCI remains unclear. Generally, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a positive signal.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 11.5%, and still firmly above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, this shows that the market is well-participated. In general, volume above the 40-day VMA level is usually a positive element for the KLCI performance.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now touching 70% level. If the Stochastic should failed to rebound and return to above 70% level, it would end the short term bullish signal. Which means a beginning of a technical correction.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Middle Band is pointing upward, which implies that the current consolidation is likely to be bullish biased. But still, our local market performance is still widely affected by the performance of regional markets, and therefore, we have to monitor the performance of other world major indices.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL


DJIA Short term rally has a chance - despite 10% plunge

11th November: The US markets dropped ten percent in two days last week. Despite the magnitude of the fall, new lows were modest.. (See the chart attached.) This suggests that most stocks were merely pulling back a bit after rallying the previous week. They were not trending lower. Thus there is still a chance that the market could enjoy a short term rally, provided new lows remain modest (around 100 or less) this week. Various bottoming scenarios below are just guesses. We cannot make sensible predictions at this stage where long term charts merely show a vertical drop.

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