Technical | Fundamental Analysis Discussion Stocks Listed In Bursa

Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts

Sunday, January 11, 2009

By Zhuge Liang

Warren Buffett's Best Buys

Investing like Warren Buffett is neither an art nor a science. Rather, it is a study of human nature and a willingness to follow a mundane path. As the Oracle of Omaha has proved, boring does not equal unprofitable. His investments often reflect the most basic products and services, ranging from consumer goods like razor blades and laundry detergent to soft drinks and automobile insurance.

A basic tenet of Buffett's strategy is to invest in companies he believes will provide a long-term value investment, rather than investing in fads or technologies that may be profitable in the short run but are likely to become obsolete in the foreseeable future. His investments are guided by his famous words: "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

Choosing Investments With Long-Term Value
In 1987, Buffett famously stated, "I'll tell you why I like the cigarette business. It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty." While he later stated that the tobacco industry was burdened with issues that made him change his opinion of it, this statement sums up Buffett's description of the perfect investment.

Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway has a portfolio that contains both wholly owned subsidiaries, such as Geico Auto Insurance and Benjamin Moore & Co., and sizable blocks of shares in publicly traded corporations. For example, Berkshire Hathaway is the largest shareholder of both Coca Cola and Kraft Foods. brands that are ubiquitous throughout America's supermarkets.

While these investments are profitable, Buffett's most ingenuous picks were his purchases of See's Candy and Gillette. Both were so seemingly ordinary that they belied their market shares and their capacity to generate profits that most companies only dream about. Let's take a look at them in depth.


Example 1: See's Candy: The Perfect Business Model
In 1972, Buffett purchased See's Candy from the See family for $25 million. See's has been around since 1921, and its stores, designed to look like they belong on Main Street in a traditional American village, can be found throughout the western United States as well in many airports. Their selection is neither trendy nor flashy; the company offers the type of fare that while not in style, also never goes out of fashion. Over the ensuing decades, Buffett invested another $32 million into the business. Since its acquisition, the seemingly nominal confection and retail manufacturer has returned $1.35 billion to its owners.

What attracted Buffett to this investment? Primarily, it was a highly profitable business with extraordinarily attractive fundamentals. Its pretax earnings were 60% of its invested capital. As a cash business, accounts receivable was not an issue. As for cash flow, the rapid turnover of products combined with a short distribution cycle minimized inventories. Operating strategies, such as increasing prices before Valentine's Day, provided extra revenue that went straight to the bottom line.

Thus, this seemingly nominal enterprise was a perfect business model. In addition to financing its own growth over the years, See's has proved itself to be a valuable cash cow whose profits offer Berkshire Hathaway another internal source of revenues with which to make other acquisitions
.



Example 2: Gillette: Another Great Success Story
Gillette provides another example of Buffett's investment strategy. In 1989, Gillette was a company with core products that were so firmly entrenched in the marketplace that seemingly every household in America used them. Gillette's razors, and more significantly the razor blades that fit them, once provided 71% of the company's profits and held a huge market share as the top brand in the United States . The company's Papermate pens, pencils, erasers and Liquid Paper, equally lacking in glamor, were sold in every venue imaginable, from stationery stores to supermarkets to newsstands. White Rain shampoo, Rite Guard and Dry Idea antiperspirants, and Gillette Foamy shaving cream were all powerful name brands, which together represented $1 billion in sales in 1989.



During the 1980s, the razor industry was shaken up as disposable razors initially took away a significant share of sales from Gillette. In 1988, Coniston Partners attempted a hostile takeover of the Gillette company. Gillette won that battle, and in 1989, the company redefined the industry with the introduction of the Sensor Razor, a product that appealed to men's desire for a high quality/high tech product and reinvigorated the company's sales and profits. That same year, Buffett stepped in with a $600 million purchase of preferred stock, making Berkshire Hathaway the owner of 11% of the consumer goods company, a seat on the board and a healthy $52.5 million annual dividend. Through the 1990s, Gillette's stock price gave Berkshire Hathaway a significant paper profit. In less than 24 months, the $600 million investment was worth $850 million.


Patience Pays
Buffett's modus operandi is to be patient, so he did not liquidate his holding and take an immediate profit. Rather, he continued to demonstrate his confidence in Gillette's management, even as the company invested millions of dollars in research and development and acquired Duracell, another classic American brand. In 2005, the acquisition of Gillette by Proctor & Gamble valued Berkshire Hathaway's shares at more than $5 billion and made Berkshire Hathaway the largest shareholder of the world's leading consumer product manufacturer. Since P&G fits Buffett's parameters as a company that possesses many of America's favorite brand names, he assured Wall Street that he would not only hold the shares, but would increase his position in the company.

If Buffett had invested the original $600 million in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rather than in P&G, its value before dividends would have grown to only $2.2 billion.

While See's and Gillette are seemingly very different companies, Buffett recognized that both possessed the most valuable formula a company can achieve: profitable and timeless name-brand products. Boxed candy has been a staple of American society for generations, and See's is such a well-loved product that the company saw growth even during the years of the Great Depression. Gillette's shaving products serve a need that will never disappear, and its products have been found in homes throughout America and the world.

Financially, both businesses reflect strategies that have proved to be successful. The cost of producing boxed candy has often been, like perfume, less costly than the packaging and marketing of the product. This translates into extraordinary profit. And the razor blade business that Gillette pioneered and still dominates is the original example of the business model of giving away a larger, infrequently purchased product (the razor) in order to sell a smaller, repeatedly purchased product (the disposable blades) to customers for the rest of their lives.

The Bottomline
The first step in replicating Buffett's investment strategy is to locate wonderful companies with long-term value and fairly priced stock. The next step is to get away from the sidelines and invest. See's was profitable before Buffett purchased it, just as Gillette was already known on Wall Street as a desirable investment. It is Buffett's willingness to put his cash down and hold these stocks for the long run that separates him from those who only watch and wait.

Buffett has described his strategy as the "Rip van Winkle approach" after the main character of a famous short story by American author Washington Irving who falls asleep and wakes up 20 years later. Perfect timing is difficult if not impossible to achieve, but Buffett explains that "we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."





Please subscribe to Bursa Chat. We will send you the latest post by Email
===> Click
Subscribe to Bursa Chat by Email




BACK TO CHAT BOX

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Warren Buffett shares his thoughts ......
A Must Read For Traders, Investors, Managers & just about anyone



I had the good fortune to attend the 2008- Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha , Nebraska a few weeks back.

It was a wonderful experience listening to and learning from the Master Investor- Warren Buffett himself and all I can say is that he stands alone as the reigning deity of financial world's Mt Olympus!

The degree of humility and composure he exhibited, although he is the richest and most well respected human is stunning!

I tried to take some notes and would like to share with you some of the best questions and answers which came across during the conversation between we mortals and God.

Having read about him, observed him and worshipped him for a few years now, I think it is reasonable to believe that this guy is exactly what he seems: a plain-speaking, tee totalling man of uncrackable integrity who works really, really hard and sticks to his investing and management principles through boom and bust which makes him a freak of nature since he is above normal human tendencies. He is like a comet streaking through the heavens every 75 years or so.

The questions the shareholders threw at him for 7 continuous hours ranged from finances, life, religion, career, politics, sports and several other streams. And he answered everything with a Zen like calm and confidence.

Even if you are least bothered about investments and finances, I insist, please read on................. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?

Neither, Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.

When do you deicide to invest in a firm?

The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60's)

What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?

I don't look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that's the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people evenafter selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can't wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.

Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren't you investing?

Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.

When do you plan to retire?

I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that's a lesson to all my managers, don't retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that's what they mean when they say- "Thinking out of the Box"!!

Why do stock market crashes happen?

Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn't going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you."

What are the things that are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?

I like such open ended questions, I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Do you still hate Technology stocks?

With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don't know, then you don't know what it is worth and you arespeculating, not investing. All I know is that I don't know, and if I don't know, I don't invest."

How to think about Investing?


The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' Aesop forgot to saywhen you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them."

How do you feel after donating $ 40 Billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation? You are a hero to us!

I feel nothing. I haven't sacrificed anything in life. I have had a good life. I donated after I turned 75. I think I admire those people who sacrifice their time, share their food and home, as the people to be emulated, not me. Besides, what is money before a man's life?

What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?

I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have beenobserving the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.

Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street , New York ?

Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system.

You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started.

My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. Iam lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.

People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?

I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That's how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. Iam an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards (Mr. Buffett owns 8% of Coca-Cola and 13 % of American Express). I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don't like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.

I am a small time businessman from Dallas , Texas , what do I need to do to hit big time?

Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn't acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.

I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?

My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You're dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it's like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.

Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.

What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?

Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself - that would be my advice..

You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dont you advice them from making such decisions and what's your view on their justification for their pay?

I like sharing my ideas but don't like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn't make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don't feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn't see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don't know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn't have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.


It was a 7 hour conversation and I could just capture some of the best questions and answers. As 37,000+ dazed, amazed and grateful shareholders trooped out of the stadium after the meeting, I found myself recalling one of my favorite quotes-

"A man has to learn that he cannot command things, but that he can command himself; that he cannot coerce the wills of others, but that he can mold and master his own will: and things serve him who serves truth; people seek guidance of him who is master of himself".
BY ZHUGE LIANG

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Faith, Doubt, and Warren Buffett By Zhuge Liang

It's been a difficult year for the Warren Buffett faithful. Core beliefs are being tested.
Stock prices have plunged as the government struggles to contain the damage from what appears to be the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Berkshire Hathaway is no exception. In late November, the Class A shares traded as low as $74,100 each. That was over 51 percent below their December 2007 all-time intraday high of $151,650.
After a rebound that took the stock back into six-digit territory, it is once again trading below $100,000.
Berkshire's net earnings plunged 77 percent in the third quarter, as Buffett's long-term wager on the health of global stocks racked up billions in short-term paper losses.

Is Warren Buffett Losing His Touch?
The Wall Street Journal urges him to "get a new crystal ball." Buffett isn't worried.. "It's happened before. A capitalist systen overshoots .. but it works very well over time."

Almost two months ago, he told the world he's enthusiastically buying U.S. stocks for his own account, picking up a "slice of America's future at a marked-down price." But over those two months, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index has dropped another 8 percent.

Faith says that just as we know that winter won't last forever, we also know that stocks will eventually bloom again, too. Buy now while the nights are long and the storm rages, even if it is a "perfect" storm.

Doubt replies that this time, it's different. The financial markets don't move as reliably as the Sun and the Earth. Spring looks like it will be very, very late this time around. Things could get worse, and they will never be as good as they were.
For many Buffett followers, being "greedy when others are fearful" is a matter of faith, an acceptance of the idea that they should stay on the 'right' path despite all the nagging doubts that they're heading in the 'wrong' direction.

This is an invitation to share your thoughts. Are you losing your faith in Warren Buffett? In the style of investing that he has preached all these years?


Pls post your views & comments in Bursa - Chat. TQVM.
*****************************************************************************

综合指数 2008年 12月 15日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数稍微下滑,惟综指还是成功的在布林中频带获得扶持,这也继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线。另外887点的胜图自动费氏线继依然是综指的阻力水平,支持水平则落在800点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)进一步收窄17%,这表示综指继续的维持在横摆巩固的格局里,这也意味着综指继续的酝酿着一个新的趋势,而新趋势只在布林频带再度打开时才会浮现出来。另一方面,综指目前始终是处于一个由T1及T2组成的下降轨道(Descending Trend Channel)内,所以综指整体上是属于一个下降的趋势里,直到综指上扬突破T1趋势线为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量成交量下降6.2%,所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这表示投资者还是对综指的后市抱着谨慎的态度,继续的离场观望,这也是成交量在综指横摆时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)进一步下滑,并且跌破50%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势继续的转弱,不过由于布林频带还未开始打开,所以综指的短期走势还不能确定是出现了跌势。

总的来说,由于布林频带还是属于收窄的情形,所以综指目前算是处于一个横摆巩固或不明朗的格局,换句话说,综指必须等到布林频带再度打开时,才能摆脱目前的僵局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 15/12/2008

On Monday, the KLCI ended slightly lower but still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band (as indicated by A). Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band can serve as the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while 800 point is still the support level.

As shown on chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 17%, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI is still intact. Also, this implies that the KLCI is still preparing for a new direction, and the new direction shall be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands. On the other hand, the KLCI is still trading under the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, and therefore, unless the KLCI could break out successfully above the T1 line, the downtrend shall remains intact.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6.2%, and volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting the overall market participation is still low. This is generally normal as the KLCI is still consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic falls and break below 50% level, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side. Still, since the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, signal from the Stochastic might be a little over sensitive.

In short, the market movement for the KLCI is still unclear as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting. Therefore, we will still have to wait until the Bollinger Bands Width to expand before determining the next direction for the KLCI.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL


BACK TO CHAT BOX