Shopping Chat

由于亚太市场继续在国际市场传来的坏消息的影响下滑落，综合指数也不例外，周二综指下跌了1.1%。如图中箭头A所示，综指跌破了887点的胜图自动费氏线，所以887点目前反过来成为了综指当前的阻力水平，综指接下来的支持水平则落在869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）开始打开（24%），而综指则继续的维持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，所以综指出现了下跌的趋势。通常综指将继续的下滑，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量进一步萎缩10.9%，这使到成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示综指目前继续的处于调整巩固的格局里。通常在综指出现下跌趋势时，成交量低并不代表综指跌幅低，这一点与综指上扬时有所不同。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）已经跌破了30%，所以综指的短期走势目前已经是处于一个下跌的格局中，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。无论如何，随机指标已经下跌得非常接近0%的水平，所以这也是综指短期超卖的迹象，有望引发技术反弹，不过若随机指标一日未能突破30%的话，那综指的短期走势还是属于偏弱的。

总的来说，从布林频带的讯号中确定了综指出现了另一轮的跌势，至于综指的跌势何时结束目前则是言之过早，通常随机指标回弹并突破30%或布林频带收窄将是短期跌势结束的第一个讯号。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/01/2009

On Tuesday, the KLCI was hit by negative news across the region, closing 1.1% lower. As indicated by A, the KLCI fell below the 887 Fibonacci Retracement and the next support for the KLCI is at 869 followed by 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 24%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width suggesting a bearish movement for the KLCI. The bearish movement for the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width contracts again.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 10.9%, with volume staying below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is relatively lower, thus the KLCI is losing its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. Therefore, the short term bearish movement of the KLCI continues, until the Stochastic break above the 30% level successfully. Meanwhile, since the Stochastic is nearly at 0%, it suggests that the KLCI might be over-sold, and therefore, a technical rebound is likely to take place in the near future. But still, to confirm the technical rebound, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level. Until that, the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the negative side.

In conclusion, the Bollinger Bands Width has shown a bearish direction for the KLCI, and for now, the bearish movement of the KLCI is likely to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, which would suggest another consolidation for the KLCI.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 1301/2009

As the regional market mostly ended lower, the KLCI was dragged 1.1% on Tuesday, breaking below the 920 level. As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded precisely again on the Bollinger Middle Band, and the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is now 920 while the support is still at 900 psychological level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 9%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, while the market direction for the KLCI is still unclear.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Tuesday was 10.2% lower, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still actively participated. If volume should continue to decline, it is still a typical characteristic of a consolidation market.

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram is still falling while no rounding bottom is sighted yet; this shows that the KLCI is still in a consolidation. To sum up, the direction for the KLCI is still unclear for now, and we shall have to wait until the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width to determine the new movement for the KLCI.

综合指数 2009年 01月 12日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数再度上扬突破920点的胜图自动费氏线阻力水平，这使到综指有再度出现上扬趋势的迹象。综指接下来的阻力水平是940点及972点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是刚刚突破了的920点。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）收窄1%，这表示虽然综指上扬4.50点，不过整体上综指还是属于一个调整巩固的格局里，直到布林频带再度打开为止。通常当布林频带开始明显的打开时，综指将会出现一个新的趋势，而这新趋势的方向将取决于综指届时处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的相应位置。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量增长38.3%，使到成交量成功的突破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示市场回到了一个交投活跃的状态，所以若综指继续出现上扬迹象的话，那成交量若能维持在40天平均值以上对综指的后市是有正面的影响。

如图中箭头C所示，由于随机指标（Stochastic）继续的保持在70%以上，这意味综指的短期走势依然维持在一个偏强的格局。换句话说，综指将持续的保持一个上扬的格局，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指在经过了数日的技术调整后，有重新转强的迹象，若布林频带接下来明显的打开，而综指又能继续的维持在布林中频带的话，那综指的后市将有望更上一层楼。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 1201/2009


As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 920 Fibonacci Retracement again on Monday, suggesting that the KLCI is attempting to resume its rally. The next resistance for the KLCI is at 940 followed by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement, while the immediate support is at 920 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted only 1%, suggesting that the direction for the KLCI is still unclear, despite the KLCI ended 4.5 points higher. But still, since the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand with the KLCI remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 38.3%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is now relatively sufficient, as it is the most important element to sustain any rally of the KLCI.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased, until the Stochastic should break below the 70% level. To sum up, despite the consolidation, the KLCI is still showing some positive signs, and if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands again, more up side room is expected for the KLCI.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL

By Zhuge Liang

Maybank (RM5.60)
Support : 5.00 Resistance : 5.85
Cut Loss : 5.15 (7.2% below current price)

Maybank has now broken upwards from its short term MAV line. As Maybank has not moved up much from its October low (17%), its downside can be considered relatively limited at this point of time.

AMMB (RM2.66)
Support : 2.40 Resistance : 3.00
Cut Loss : 2.45 (6.8% below current price)

AMMB has a good restructuring story to tell when it turned around and made healthy profits in the last few quarters (total Net profit of RM433 million in last 2 quarters). We don’t see many roadblocks ahead with the exception of the 3.00 resistance level which is an implied 14% of technical upside ahead in the short term for AMMB.

As indicated by A, the KLCI ended 5.39 points higher on Wednesday, and formed a mixed candlestick, suggesting an uncertain market direction as some profit taking activities took place. As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding 19%, but if compared to the previous trading days, the Bollinger Bands Width expansion rate is slowing down, suggesting the KLCI upside volatility is also declining. But still, as long as the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bullish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 2.9%, while still staying above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still actively participated. Therefore, technically speaking the market participation is still at a healthy level.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still falling but still above the 70% level. As long as the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still on the positive side. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. In short, the KLCI is showing some sign of profit taking, but the short term bullish biased view is still intact.

HAPPY INVESTING &GOODLUCK2ALL

By Zhuge Liang

TEBRAU
Tebrau (RM0.480)
Support : 0.450 Resistance : 0.550
Cut Loss : 0.450 (7.2% below current price)

Tebrau saw a huge inflow of speculative trading volume yesterday. Going forward to March, Tebrau might be a good proxy to ride the UMNO Elections play. The support is pegged at the 0.45 level while the resistance is pegged at the 0.55 level
which is November’s high. Wait for a 6%-10% correction today before taking any trading positions.

如图中箭头A所示，由于综合指数超越了20天布林频带（Bollinger Band），所以综指出现了布林拉回效应（Bollinger Pull Back Effect），使到综指面对布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的拉力而出现技术调整。其实这也意味着综指在上扬了一度时日后，出现了套利活动的现象。

综指当前的支持水平为布林中频带的动态支持线及920点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是972点的胜图自动费氏线。另外，由于综指继续的远离T1及T2的下降轨道（Descending Trend Channel），所以综指有继续转强的可能。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然马股的总成交量减少9.5%，不过成交量依然成功的维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这表示只要综指也能维持在布林中频带以上的话，那综指将有望继续的转强。

如图中箭头C所示，由于随机指标（Stochastic）周一达到了100%的水平，这显示市场开始有短期超买的现象，所以综指周二出现了技术调整。无论如何，只要随机指标一日未跌破70%的话，那综指的短期的走势还是属于上扬的格局。

总的来说，综指上扬的趋势出现了一个技术调整的现象，不过只要综指能继续的维持在布林中频带以上，再加上足够的成交量（高于40天平均值），那综指将有望维持目前上扬的格局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 06/01/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI pulled back after hitting above the 20-day Bollinger Upper Band, which suggested an over-bought signal for the KLCI. The pull-back effect is a form a technical correction, and it is considered normal after a rally.

Immediate support for the KLCI is still at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support as well as the 920 level, while the resistance is at 972 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Meanwhile, as the KLCI is moving further away from the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, it is likely to form a new trend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 9.5%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still active. As long as the KLCI is still supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the positive movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic started to retreat after hitting 100%, which is a sign of over-heating. However, as long as the Stochastic could remain above 70% level, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased. In short, the criteria for the KLCI to maintain its upside movement are volume above the 40-day VMA level and the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band.

Kossan Rubber Industries >>> Truly Recessions Proof By ZHUGE LIANG

Kossan was listed on Bursa Malaysia’s Second Board in 1996 before being upgraded to the Main Board in 2003. Based in Klang, Kossan is basically involved in manufacturing latex gloves and technical rubber products (TRP).

With an annual capacity of 9bn pieces, Kossan is the third largest glove producer in Malaysia and also worldwide. The company manufactures rubber-based products such as premium grade medical gloves, moulded rubber and extruded rubber. Today, it exports to more than 50 countries worldwide, with the US and Canada as its largest markets, accounting for 55% of total revenue. Given the nature of its business, we believe Kossan will still turn in an outstanding performance despite the global economic downturn.

Top Glove, Supermax and Kossan presently dominate the domestic latex glove industry. Kossan derives about 75-80% of its earnings from latex gloves, which are all for export markets. As Kossan’s management prefers to focus on high-end gloves, it exports more than 80% of its latex gloves to developed markets such as the US/Canada, EU, Australia and Japan. The TRP segment only contributes about 15-20% to Kossan's revenue.

Cost
Latex is the main raw material used in production making up over half of total production cost. Other major cost components include energy (12%), labour (9%), packing (8%), and chemical (8%).The glove industry currently faces the issue of rising latex costs. But followed by the global economy downturn, oil price had dropped. Rubber / latex price movement has 90% affect by oil price. And now we can see the cost of Kossan is lower..

Positive earnings growth
Kossan expected to register net earnings of RM60.6m and RM75.9m for FY08 and FY09 respectively. On the other hand, ROE will be strong at above 20% over the next few years and Kossan expected net earnings to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% for the next 3 years

Valuation is cheap
The stock is currently trading at an undemanding forward PER of 6.2x and 5.0x for FY08 and FY09 respectively. The target price is unchanged at RM4.60 by applying a composite of 10x PER and 2.0x P/BV and over an FY09 EPS of 47.5 sen and BV/share of RM2.28. Its strong earnings growth and cheap valuation gives investors a good opportunity to accumulate on weakness. We see Kossan as a good long term investment at this moment.

Kossan >>> Earning driven, FA wise & better than Top Glove / Supermax

Although it's oledi up abt RM0.40 but still Chart wise, not much resistance, fractal resistance seen @ RM3.60

Mantain : BUY Target RM4.60

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 02/01/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the 887 resistance level after being supported by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support. Therefore, the immediate support for the KLCI is now at 887 level and the next resistance is at 900 psychological level.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands width has not expanded. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a clearer bullish biased signal.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 63%, reaching the 40-day VMA level at last. This shows that the market participation has improved, and if the volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, chances for the KLCI to continue its bullish biased movement would be higher.

As circled at C, the MACD line is now breaking above the zero level for the first time since May 29th 2008, suggesting an improvement of the longer term movement. Provided that the MACD line is still rising above the zero level, the market movement of the KLCI is expected to stay positive.

In short, the KLCI had a good start for the year 2009, and coupled with the Chinese New Year effect, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is bullish biased, but still too soon to declare a bull run, because the KLCI is still below the 200-day moving average line.

综合指数 2009年 01月 02日
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）获得扶持后上扬，突破了887点的胜图自动费氏线，所以887点反过来成为了综指的支持水平，综指当前的阻力水平为900点的心理阻力水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）还未真正的打开，所以若布林频带接下来开始明显的打开，那综指将确认出现一个上扬的趋势，惟综指必须继续的维持在布林中频带以上。换句话说，综指接下来出现上扬的机会高，不过这都要等到布林频带是否打开来确定。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量终于达到了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示市场开始达到了合理的水平。这表示若成交量继续的能维持达到40天平均值以上的话，那综指转强的趋势将可以继续维持下去。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离（MACD）开始上扬突破零轴而进入正值区域，这是自2008年5月29日来平均乖离第一次重返正值区域，这意味着综指有出现中长期转强的迹象。换句话说，若平均乖离接下来能继续的维持在零轴以上，那综指的后市将看高一线。

总的来说，综指有开始进入了元月效应的迹象，若综指能维持在布林中频带以上的话，那综指将有望出现上扬的格局。无论如何，若要出现真正的牛市目前还是言之过早，因为综指还是得要上扬突破200天的移动平均线，那综指才能确认进入牛市的阶段。

As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower on Wednesday but remain supported by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the next support is 800 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 21%, suggesting the KLCI is now consolidating, and the market direction shall remain unclear until the expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Wednesday is a 3 year new low, due to festive holidays, as well as uncertain market sentiment. Therefore, the overall market participation is indeed very quiet as investors show no interests in the stock market. Nevertheless, technically speaking, it is rather normal to see lower volume during a consolidation of the KLCI.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70% level, suggesting an end to the short term bullish signal. Unless the Stochastic could return to above 70% level immediately, the falling of the Stochastic line implies a weakening short term movement for the KLCI.

In short, the KLCI is likely to consolidate again as the Bollinger Bands Width begins to contract, and if the KLCI should failed to remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall turn bearish biased.

综合指数 2008年 12月 24日

As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 887 Fibonacci Retracement resistance line on Monday, but failed to break above it. Therefore, the 887 level shall remain as the resistance for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the KLCI formed a candlestick with a relatively long upper shadow, suggesting some selling pressure as profit taking activities kicked in during the afternoon session. Support for the KLCI is still at 800 points.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 5%, which is not significant. Since the KLCI is pulling back, therefore, the target of the pullback should be at the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market as a whole is still relatively quiet. Therefore, without sufficient market participation, the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still falling, but remain above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, this shows that the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

As the KLCI started to pullback after its gain on last Thursday, the Bollinger Middle Band support will be a crucial level to watch out, for if the KLCI should be supported by the rising Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to continue its improvement. Of course, other factors including the performance of the regional markets will affect the KLCI performance as well.

综合指数 2008年 12月 22日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数再度上探887点的胜图自动费氏线，惟综指先盛后衰，还是未能成功突破此阻力水平，并形成一个长上影线（Long Uppwer Shadow）的阴阳烛，这显示综指有套利或转弱的风险。综指当期的阻力水平继续的是887点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是落在800点，另外T1这下降趋势线也将继续的成为综指的动态支持线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）打开的幅度下降至5%，这表示综指继续的出现技术调整，通常布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将是综指技术调整的目标，这也是综指的动态支持线之一。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量还是偏低，离开40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）还是有一段距离，这显示市场参与者还是少，这使到综指未能确定综指已经转为上扬的趋势。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续下挫，惟随机指标还是成功的维持在70%以上，这表示综指的短期走势出现技术调整的迹象，惟由于随机指标还未跌破70%，所以综指的短期走势依然是还未真正发出转弱的讯号，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

换句话说，综指有出现短期技术调整的迹象，无论如何，只要综指能守住布林中频带这水平，那综指将有望在布林频带再度打开时而转强，这也正是测量投资者信心的一个指标，当然国际市场的种种因素也将继续的笼罩以及影响综指后市的表现。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI retreated slightly on Friday. Therefore, the resistance for the KLCI is at 915 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 801.27 points, as well s the T1 downtrend line.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 14%, which is somewhat lower if compared to Thursday's expansion rate. But still, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band is still a bullish signal, and provided that the Bollinger Bands Width could still expanding, the bullish Bollinger Bands signal is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 23.1%, and the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that although there are some signs of improvement in the KLCI performance, the overall market sentiment is still very cautious.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated on Friday after hitting 100% on Thursday, but still remain above the 70% level. Therefore, this shows that the short term bullish signal of the Stochastic is still intact. In short, the pull back on Friday is still normal with slightly lower volume. As long as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the brighter side.

综合指数 2008年 12月 19日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数受到 915 点的胜图自动费氏线的阻扰而稍微回调，这是正常的技术调整，这显示 915 点的胜图自动费氏线持续的成为综指当前的阻力水平。综指当前的支持水平则是801.27点胜图自动费氏线，另外T1这下降趋势线也将成为综指的动态支持线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）打开的的幅度减低至14%，所以综指出现了调整的格局。无论如何，综指目前还是处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以只要布林频带打开的幅度再度增加，那综指还是有望继续上扬的。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的总成交量下降23.1%，所以成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示虽然综指开始有转强的迹象，不过投资者还是谨慎的步步为营，选择观望的居多。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在周四达到100%，使到综指在短期超卖的讯号下稍微调整，无论如何，只要随机指标不跌破70%的话，那综指还是有望在技术调整后再度的转强。

总的来说，综指在未获得成交量增加的承托下，出现了技术调整，不过只要综指能维持在布林中频带以上，那综指的后市还是有望看高一线。

Maya Karin

BACK TO CHAT BOX

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 18/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 47% with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, it is a bullish signal for the KLCI, as the KLCI rose 2.1%. Therefore, the KLCI has broken above the downtrend channel of T1 and T2. Other than the T1 support line, the 800 points is still an important support level. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, the bullish biased Bollinger Bands signal is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 48.9%, which suggesting an improvement is market participation. The increase of market participation is definitely a positive sign. Nevertheless, volume above the 40-day VMA level is an important criteria for the KLCI to sustain its bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still rising while above the 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, the market movement for the short term is now bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would mark an end to the short term bullish signal, and suggest a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width and the increase of volume would definitely help lifting the market sentiment.

综合指数 2008年 12月 18日

如图中箭头A所示，由于布林频带（Bollinger Band）明显的打开47%，所以综合指数上扬2.1%，使到综指成功的摆脱了T1及T2组成的下降趋势轨道（Descending Treand Channel）。如图所示，综指当前的支持水平除了T1之外，就是布林中频带这到动态支持线，综指再下一道的支持水平则落在800点的胜图自动费氏线。

由于布林频带刚开始明显的打开，而综指继续的处于布林中频带以上，这意味着只要布林频带继续的维持在打开格局的话，那综指的上扬趋势将有望持续下去，直到布林频带打开的幅度下降或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加了48.9%，这表示投资者开始回笼，这出现在综指上扬转强时是对综指的后市有着正面的作用。若成交量接下来能持续增长至40天成交量移动平均线的话，那综指的上扬趋势将有望在高成交量的承托下继续维持下去。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度走高，这意味着综指的短期走势继续的属于上扬的格局。通常综指的短期趋势将有望继续的走强，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，由于期待已久的布林频带打开讯号已经出现了，所以综指开始走强，另外由于综指摆脱了自8月来的T1-T2下降趋势轨道，这显示只要市场进一步的获得成交量扶持的话，那综指将有继续转强的走势。

maya karin

BACK TO CHAT BOX

Faith, Doubt, and Warren Buffett By Zhuge Liang

It's been a difficult year for the Warren Buffett faithful. Core beliefs are being tested.
Stock prices have plunged as the government struggles to contain the damage from what appears to be the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Berkshire Hathaway is no exception. In late November, the Class A shares traded as low as $74,100 each. That was over 51 percent below their December 2007 all-time intraday high of $151,650.
After a rebound that took the stock back into six-digit territory, it is once again trading below $100,000.
Berkshire's net earnings plunged 77 percent in the third quarter, as Buffett's long-term wager on the health of global stocks racked up billions in short-term paper losses.

Is Warren Buffett Losing His Touch?
The Wall Street Journal urges him to "get a new crystal ball." Buffett isn't worried.. "It's happened before. A capitalist systen overshoots .. but it works very well over time."

Almost two months ago, he told the world he's enthusiastically buying U.S. stocks for his own account, picking up a "slice of America's future at a marked-down price." But over those two months, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index has dropped another 8 percent.

Faith says that just as we know that winter won't last forever, we also know that stocks will eventually bloom again, too. Buy now while the nights are long and the storm rages, even if it is a "perfect" storm.

Doubt replies that this time, it's different. The financial markets don't move as reliably as the Sun and the Earth. Spring looks like it will be very, very late this time around. Things could get worse, and they will never be as good as they were.
For many Buffett followers, being "greedy when others are fearful" is a matter of faith, an acceptance of the idea that they should stay on the 'right' path despite all the nagging doubts that they're heading in the 'wrong' direction.

This is an invitation to share your thoughts. Are you losing your faith in Warren Buffett? In the style of investing that he has preached all these years?

Pls post your views & comments in Bursa - Chat. TQVM.

*****************************************************************************

综合指数 2008年 12月 15日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数稍微下滑，惟综指还是成功的在布林中频带获得扶持，这也继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线。另外887点的胜图自动费氏线继依然是综指的阻力水平，支持水平则落在800点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）进一步收窄17%，这表示综指继续的维持在横摆巩固的格局里，这也意味着综指继续的酝酿着一个新的趋势，而新趋势只在布林频带再度打开时才会浮现出来。另一方面，综指目前始终是处于一个由T1及T2组成的下降轨道（Descending Trend Channel）内，所以综指整体上是属于一个下降的趋势里，直到综指上扬突破T1趋势线为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量成交量下降6.2%，所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这表示投资者还是对综指的后市抱着谨慎的态度，继续的离场观望，这也是成交量在综指横摆时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）进一步下滑，并且跌破50%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势继续的转弱，不过由于布林频带还未开始打开，所以综指的短期走势还不能确定是出现了跌势。

总的来说，由于布林频带还是属于收窄的情形，所以综指目前算是处于一个横摆巩固或不明朗的格局，换句话说，综指必须等到布林频带再度打开时，才能摆脱目前的僵局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 15/12/2008

On Monday, the KLCI ended slightly lower but still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band (as indicated by A). Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band can serve as the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while 800 point is still the support level.

As shown on chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 17%, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI is still intact. Also, this implies that the KLCI is still preparing for a new direction, and the new direction shall be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands. On the other hand, the KLCI is still trading under the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, and therefore, unless the KLCI could break out successfully above the T1 line, the downtrend shall remains intact.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6.2%, and volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting the overall market participation is still low. This is generally normal as the KLCI is still consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic falls and break below 50% level, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side. Still, since the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, signal from the Stochastic might be a little over sensitive.

In short, the market movement for the KLCI is still unclear as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting. Therefore, we will still have to wait until the Bollinger Bands Width to expand before determining the next direction for the KLCI.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

Bollinger Bands By Zhuge Liang

Bollinger Bands were invented by John Bollinger. Used to confirm trading signals, normally from a Momentum Indicator the bands indicate overbought and oversold levels relative to a moving average.

Bollinger Bands are calculated at a specified number of standard deviations above and below the moving average, causing them to widen when prices are volatile and contract when prices are stable.

Bollinger originally used a 20 day simple moving average and set the bands at 2 standard deviations, suited to intermediate cycles.

Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply.

This is one of the most popular technical analysis techniques. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数跟随亚太股市上扬，并且稍微突破了布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这表示综指有望出现转强的趋势。无论如何，综指还是要等到布林频带（Bollinger Band）开始明显的打开，那综指才能确认出现上扬的趋势。

如图所示，布林频带目前打开的幅度是0%，所以若综指接下来继续的上扬以及站在布林中频带以上，那布林频带将会出现打开的情形，这将是综指确认上扬的讯号。

综指当前的阻力水平依然是887点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则还是落在800点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指上扬，不过成交量却比周二低12.4%，这显示投资者还是对综指的后市有所保留，所以并未大举进场。通常综指是需要成交量持续的增加至40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，综指才能确认上扬的趋势。

如周二提到一样，随机指标在连续处于零水平后，这表示综指已经出现了短期超卖的现象，所以周三综指出现了技术反弹。如图中C圈所示，随机指标上扬突破30%，所以综指的短期出现了预料中的技术反弹。

总的来说，随机指标目前已经来到了50%以上的水平，若随机指标能持续上扬并突破70%的话，那综指的短期走势将有望出现上扬的趋势。另一方面，综指接下来是必须保持在布林中频带的位置，那综指才有望继续出现转强的趋势。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 10/12/2008
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the Bollinger Middle Band by margin on Wednesday, as the Asian markets ended broadly higher. Breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band is crucial for the KLCI, and if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a positive signal for the KLCI.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 0%, suggesting the KLCI is currently still consolidating. Support for the KLCI is still at 800 points while the 877 Fibonacci Retracement is still the next resistance for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, although the KLCI ended higher, total market volume was 12.4% lower, while still below the 40-day VMA level. It is important to have volume above the 40-day VMA level in order to sustain any bullish movement of the KLCI.

As mentioned on Tuesday's analysis, the Stochastic rebounded after touching 0% level, as it was over-sold. As a result, the KLCI rebounded on Wednesday. As circled at C, the Stochastic is breaking above the 30% level, suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound.

With the Stochastic at the 50% level now, the market movement for the short term is at neutral. If the Stochastic should break above 70% level, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI. And definitely, the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band is another criteria for the KLCI to sustain its positive movement.

GOODLUCK2ALL

George Soros Vs. The British Pound

The British pound shadowed the German mark leading up to the 1990s even though the two countries were very different economically. Germany was the stronger country despite lingering difficulties from reunification, but Britain wanted to keep the value of the pound above 2.7 marks. Attempts to keep to this standard left Britain with high interest rates and equally high inflation but it demanded a fixed rate of 2.7 marks to a pound as a condition of entering the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).

Many speculators, George Soros chief among them, wondered how long fixed exchange rates could fight market forces, and they began to take up short positions against the pound. Soros borrowed heavily to bet more on a drop in the pound. Britain raised its interest rates to double digits to try to attract investors. The government was hoping to alleviate the selling pressure by creating more buying pressure.

Paying out interest costs money, however, and the British government realized that it would lose billions trying to artificially prop up the pound. It withdrew from the ERM and the value of the pound plummeted against the mark. Soros made at least $1 billion off this one trade. For the British government's part, the devaluation of the pound actually helped, as it forced the excess interest and inflation out of the economy, making it an ideal environment for businesses.

A Thankless Job
A country can benefit from a weak currency as much as from a strong one. With a weak currency, the domestic products and assets become cheaper to international buyers and exports increase. In the same way, domestic sales increase as foreign products go up in price due to the higher cost of importing. There were very likely many people in Britain and New Zealand who were pleased when speculators brought down the overvalued currencies. Of course, there were also importers and others who were understandably upset. A currency speculator makes money by forcing a country to face realities it would rather not face. Although it's a dirty job, someone has to do it.



综合指数 2008年 12月 09日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数一度上探布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），惟综指再度精确的在此动态阻力线遇到阻力，这显示综指仍然未能摆脱弱势而转强。综指当前的支持水平依然是800点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则继续的处于887点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）稍微打开6%，而综指始终还是处于布林中频带以下，所以综指有转弱的迹象。无论如何，由于布林频带只是稍微打开，所以综指还是不算是确认出现的下跌讯号，不过若布林频带接下来继续的打开，那综指将有进一步下跌的风险。

如图中箭头B所示，由于综指一度上探布林中频带的阻力水平，投资者在看好下进场，使到成交量暴涨了66.9%，惟综指的午盘在套利活动下回吐，成交量也未能成功的达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上周五已经接近零的水平，所以综指早盘一度出现技术反弹的现象。不过综指在收市挂全日下跌3.11点使到随机指标再度处于零的水平，这是综指继续出现短期超卖的讯号。

无论如何，由于随机指标始终是处于30%以下，这表示虽然综指有出现短期超卖的讯号，不过这暂时只能算是纯技术反弹的讯号，还未算是综指出现短期上扬的讯号，除非随机指标接下来能上扬突破30%。


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 09/12/2008

As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance again, and precisely resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, while the support is still at 800 points and the other resistance is at 877 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 6%, with the KLCI remained below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the would be more downside room for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 66.9%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation has improved slightly, but still relatively insufficient.

As circled at C, the Stochastic had a rebound in the early trading on Tuesday, but as the KLCI started to decline in the afternoon session, the Stochastic returned to the 0% level, while still showing a short term bearish biased signal. Meanwhile, as the Stochastic is still touching 0% level, the over-sold signal remains intact, and therefore, some form of technical rebound is still expected in the near future. Nevertheless, despite a chance of a technical rebound, the Stochastic is still staying in its bearish region, unless the Stochastic could break above 30% level.

HAPPY INVESTING