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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Composite Index 19/01/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 01月 19日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/01/2009 By Zhuge Liang

On Monday, the KLCI continued its consolidation, closing 0.7% lower to 890.28 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 900 psychological level. (Study A)

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 5%, and therefore, it is still insignificant to be considered as any signal, for the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width has to be obvious in order to signal a direction for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 22.8%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidate, and no sign of any panic selling. But still, if the KLCI should attempt to rally and retest its resistance, volume above the 40-day VMA level is an important element to support the KLCI momentum.

On Monday, the MACD continue to fall, suggesting that the KLCI is still losing strength. In short, the MACD histogram has to form a rounding bottom as indicated by the C arrow in order for the KLCI to regain some strength.

To sum up, the direction for the KLCI remains unclear. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand with the KLCI below the 40-day VMA level, it would be a bearish biased movement for the KLCI.. Therefore, the KLCI must break above the Bollinger Middle Band in the near future in order to avoid the bearish biased movement.

综合指数 2009年 01月 19日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度出现调整的格局,稍微下跌0.7%。综指当前的支持水平仍然是887点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则是900点的心理阻力关口。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)稍微打开5%,所以虽然综指已经处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下了,综指还是不至于确定出现一个下跌的趋势。通常布林频带是必须明显的打开,那才能确定综指出现了跌势。换句话说,只要综指能在近期内回弹,并且上扬突破布林中频带的话,那综指就能避开形成一个新的跌势。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量在综指下滑的当儿再度减少22.8%,这表示综指虽然仍然是处于一个调整巩固中,不过市场还不至于出现慌张抛售的情形。无论如何,若综指再度出现上扬时,成交量是必须增加至40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,那综指的涨势才能更持久。

平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)目前跌破了零轴进入了负值区域,这表示综指当前正在出现短期的调整,通常振荡指标是必须要形成一个如箭头C般的圆(Rouding Bottom),那综指才有望止跌后出现技术反弹。

总的来说,综指目前正处于一个关键性的水平,因为若综指继续的滑落,那将触发布林频带打开而形成一个新的趋势。所以综指必须短期内回弹上扬,综指才能避免进一步的形成下跌趋势

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