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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Composite Index 19/01/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 01月 19日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/01/2009 By Zhuge Liang

On Monday, the KLCI continued its consolidation, closing 0.7% lower to 890.28 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 900 psychological level. (Study A)

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded only 5%, and therefore, it is still insignificant to be considered as any signal, for the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width has to be obvious in order to signal a direction for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 22.8%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidate, and no sign of any panic selling. But still, if the KLCI should attempt to rally and retest its resistance, volume above the 40-day VMA level is an important element to support the KLCI momentum.

On Monday, the MACD continue to fall, suggesting that the KLCI is still losing strength. In short, the MACD histogram has to form a rounding bottom as indicated by the C arrow in order for the KLCI to regain some strength.

To sum up, the direction for the KLCI remains unclear. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand with the KLCI below the 40-day VMA level, it would be a bearish biased movement for the KLCI.. Therefore, the KLCI must break above the Bollinger Middle Band in the near future in order to avoid the bearish biased movement.

综合指数 2009年 01月 19日


如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)稍微打开5%,所以虽然综指已经处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下了,综指还是不至于确定出现一个下跌的趋势。通常布林频带是必须明显的打开,那才能确定综指出现了跌势。换句话说,只要综指能在近期内回弹,并且上扬突破布林中频带的话,那综指就能避开形成一个新的跌势。


平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)目前跌破了零轴进入了负值区域,这表示综指当前正在出现短期的调整,通常振荡指标是必须要形成一个如箭头C般的圆(Rouding Bottom),那综指才有望止跌后出现技术反弹。


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