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Thursday, January 29, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 28日 / Composite Index 28/01/2009

By Zhuge Liang
综合指数 2009年 01月 28日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数稍微上扬6.94点,惟还是处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,综指当前的阻力水平依然落在887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是处于869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)收窄5%,这表示综指继续出现调整巩固的格局,这意味综指正在从之前的跌势中恢复过来,这也可以说是技术反弹,因为综指毕竟仍然是处于布林中频带这动态阻力线以下。换句话说,综指是必须先上扬突破了布林中频带,那综指才有望从纯技术反弹转为短期上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量在漫长的假期后进一步的萎缩23.1%,使到成交量继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线以下。通常在成交量低迷的情形下,综指是倾向于出现调整或横摆巩固的格局。

平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)开始上扬,这意味着振荡指标有开始形成一个圆底(Rounding Bottom)的迹象(参开箭头C)。换句话说,若振荡指标继续上扬的话,那综指将有望在振荡指标形成圆底的情形下出现一个短期上扬的趋势。

总的来说,综指目前算是处于一个技术反弹的格局,不过由于布林频带是处于收窄的情形,所以综指是有倾向于出现横摆巩固的格局。无论如何,若综指能成功上扬突破布林中频带的话,那综指就有望从纯技术反弹转为短期转强的格局了。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 28/01/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded 6.94 points on Wednesday, but still below the Bollinger Middle Band. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still seen at 869 followed by 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 5%, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating again after falling for about a week. Again, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band, or the rebound of the KLCI can only be viewed as technical rebound.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 23% on the first trading day after the festive holiday, suggesting that the market participation is still very low, as investors are still on the sidelines. Therefore, without sufficient volume, the KLCI is likely to consolidate.

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram begin to tick up, and therefore, might be forming a rounding bottom. If the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom, it would be a signal suggesting the KLCI is regaining its strength.

In conclusion, the KLCI is now technically rebounding, while likely to consolidate after the rebound, unless it could break above the Bollinger Middle Band with strong volume.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL


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