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Monday, January 12, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 12日 / Composite Index 12/01/2009

By ZhugeLiang

综合指数 2009年 01月 12日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度上扬突破920点的胜图自动费氏线阻力水平,这使到综指有再度出现上扬趋势的迹象。综指接下来的阻力水平是940点及972点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是刚刚突破了的920点。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)收窄1%,这表示虽然综指上扬4.50点,不过整体上综指还是属于一个调整巩固的格局里,直到布林频带再度打开为止。通常当布林频带开始明显的打开时,综指将会出现一个新的趋势,而这新趋势的方向将取决于综指届时处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的相应位置。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量增长38.3%,使到成交量成功的突破了40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这表示市场回到了一个交投活跃的状态,所以若综指继续出现上扬迹象的话,那成交量若能维持在40天平均值以上对综指的后市是有正面的影响。

如图中箭头C所示,由于随机指标(Stochastic)继续的保持在70%以上,这意味综指的短期走势依然维持在一个偏强的格局。换句话说,综指将持续的保持一个上扬的格局,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说,综指在经过了数日的技术调整后,有重新转强的迹象,若布林频带接下来明显的打开,而综指又能继续的维持在布林中频带的话,那综指的后市将有望更上一层楼。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 1201/2009


As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 920 Fibonacci Retracement again on Monday, suggesting that the KLCI is attempting to resume its rally. The next resistance for the KLCI is at 940 followed by the 972 Fibonacci Retracement, while the immediate support is at 920 level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted only 1%, suggesting that the direction for the KLCI is still unclear, despite the KLCI ended 4.5 points higher. But still, since the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand with the KLCI remain above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 38.3%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is now relatively sufficient, as it is the most important element to sustain any rally of the KLCI.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, the market movement for the short term is still bullish biased, until the Stochastic should break below the 70% level. To sum up, despite the consolidation, the KLCI is still showing some positive signs, and if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands again, more up side room is expected for the KLCI.

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL
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