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Thursday, January 8, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 08日 / Composite Index 08/01/2009

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 08/01/2009 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI pulled back as a form of technical correction after hitting above the 20-day Bollinger Upper band, and generally, the Bollinger Middle Band would be the target of the pull back. As shown on the chart above, since the Bollinger Middle Band is also very closed to the 900 level, and therefore, 900 point is still a support for the KLCI, while the resistance are seen at 934 and 972 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width only expanded 2% on Thursday, which is showing a sign of a possible contraction. If the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 47.4%, failing to break above the 40-day VMA level. As the KLCI is losing 1.8%, the thin volume on Thursday suggesting a rather mild selling pressure, and therefore, it is still a normal correction. But still, if the KLCI should attempt to resume its rally, volume above the 40-day VMA level is compulsory.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now breaking below 70% level, leaving the short term bullish territory, and it is a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. If the Stochastic should fall below 30% level, it would be a short term bearish signal. In short, if the Stochastic should return to above 70% level in the near future, the short term bullish signal is still intact.

The KLCI performance is still widely affected by the performance of the markets across the globe, and coupled with some profit taking activities, the KLCI is expected to consolidate for now, and the Bollinger Middle Band shall be an important support.

综合指数 2009年 01月 08日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数出现了周三提到的技术调整,这也是布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的拉回效应(Pull Back Effect),换句话说,布林中频带将是综指的第一个调整目标。

如图所示,由于布林中频带也接近900点的心理支持水平,所以900点将是综指的支持水平之一,阻力水平则是934点及972点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度降至2%,这表示综指持续的处于一个调整的格局中,直到布林频带再度出现打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量减少47.4%,跌破了40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),无论如何虽然综指下跌了1.8%,不过市场还不算是出现慌张抛售的格局。惟成交量低通常是表示综指正处于一个下跌或调整巩固的格局,所以虽然跌势并不太大,不过综指还是有下探的可能。

如图中箭头C所示,由于随机指标(Stochastic)开始跌破70%的水平,这是综指短期技术调整的讯号,不过若随机指标跌破30%的话,那则是综指开始确认短期下跌趋势的讯号。换句话说若随机指标短期内未能返回70%以上的话,那综指的短期涨势将结束。

总的来说,综指面对国际市场的负面影响而滑落,再加上投资者乘机套利,所以综指出现了技术调整,若综指接下来跌破了布林中频带这动态支持线的话,那综指的后市将看低一线。

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL


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