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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

A Little Investment Secret ... It's All About YOU / 综合指数 2008年 11月 18日 / Composite Index 18/11/2008

A Little Investment Secret ... It's All About YOU ......By Zhuge Liang

The rollercoaster ride continues. We shriek as the market pitches and heels – but the ride’s not over yet. This rollercoaster ride isn't fun anymore. While my kids might like the thrill of fear, I'm no fan of it. And I’m guessing the average investor’s not liking it either.
Well, here's a little secret that’s built investment empires through the years. Employ this piece of advice and you’ll find yourself in control rather than wandering aimlessly, listening to so-called experts telling you what to do.

YOU decide what to do.

Make investment decisions based on what's important to you. What do you believe? You decide. After all, it's only your financial future here at stake, right? And in the end, no one else will care more for your finances then YOU.

That's the secret. You decide.

Decide what’s important to you and then listen to yourself. And be skeptical. Understand that every voice you hear has a framework, which, may or may not suit your needs. Take for example, Warren Buffett.

Warren Buffett Watch

Oh, to be Warren Buffett. He has made and lost billions. One day's market move for Berkshire Hathaway often totals in the billions of dollars. When he says to buy, do you think he is concerned about what will happen next week or next year? Nope. He's looking at fundamental value, and he can afford to take a hit for a long time frame. He can afford to wait and simply stroll down to Dairy Queen for an ice cream.

What about you? How long can you wait? Warren Buffet says to be greedy when other people panic. Well that sounds great except that he lost $10 billion last month but still has $30 billion to fall back on. So let’s get to the real question -- Do you agree with the philosophy that says you can be patient and wait for value to emerge? Are you able to have a Walls Cornetto drumstick and let it pass?

Decide and follow your best judgment. Don't avoid making decisions -- that can be a disaster. Like a deer caught frozen in the headlights of an oncoming car, investing from this perspective makes little sense and will likely get you the same result -- trust me it doesn't work out well for the deer.

综合指数 2008年 11月 18日

如图中箭头A所示,虽然国际市场继续受到经济衰退的阴影下滑落,惟综合指数还是未跟随外围影响而大跌,继续的维持在横摆巩固的格局中。综指一度上探887点的胜图自动费氏线,不过综指还是未能成功突破此阻力,这表示887点继续的成为综指接下来的阻力水平,综指当前的支持水平则是800点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)继续的属于窄小的格局,这表示综指正在等待布林频带再度的打开,那综指将会摆脱横摆的格局而出现一个新的趋势。这新的趋势将由综指处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的相应位置维持来决定。由于综指目前已经是处于布林中频带以下了,所以若综指在布林频带开始打开时还未上扬到布林中频带以上的话,那综指将有形成跌势的风险了。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量减少10.9%,这表示市场整体上是属于交投淡静的格局。无论如何,这是属于布林频带收窄时的典型状况,不过若在综指再度上扬时,成交量是必须上扬至40天平均值以上;当综指下跌时,若成交量高于40天平均值则表示跌势加剧。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)目前继续的处于30%以下,这表示综指当前的短期走势依然属于偏弱中。换句话说,我们是必须等到随机指标开始上扬突破30%的水平,那综指的短期走势才能有转强上扬的机会。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 18/11/2008

As indicated by A, the KLCI is again pulled down by negative economic news around the globe while continues its narrow consolidation. The KLCI tested the 887 resistance but failed to break above this resistance. Therefore, the 887 resistance remains intact while the support is still at 800 points.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width is still narrowing, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI continues. But still, since the Bollinger Bands Width is now very narrow, it implies that the consolidation is near its end. With the KLCI staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is on the bearish biased, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 10.9% on Tuesday, with volume below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is relatively low as investor are still on the sidelines. Still, from the technical analysis stand point, it is considered normal to see lower volume during a sideways consolidation. If the KLCI should attempt to break above the resistance line, more volume is need to confirm the breakout.

However, if the KLCI should start falling with high volume it would means an increase of selling pressure, thus further dampen the market sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. Therefore, the market movement for the short term is still bearish biased, unless the Stochastic could break above 30% level successfully.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

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