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Thursday, November 20, 2008

About Winning, About Losing / 综合指数 2008年 11月 19日 / Composite Index 19/11/2008

About Winning, About Losing By Zhuge Liang

People lose money at the stock market for very simple reasons:

1. They don't have a method at all. They rely on other people opinions.

2. People don't have a winning method. The method they are trading has a negative expectancy. Being disciplined about stop losses and position sizing won't help, if you are trading a losing method. Expectancy changes with volatility. When your method stops providing satisfying results, you either find another that is working in the current market conditions or stay on the side until things change.

3. Those who have a winning strategy often don't use it. They get emotional and forget about their strategy.

“Good trading is 10% technology and 90% psychology.. People defeat themselves. It doesn’t matter how often you repeat basic trading principles when almost no one will practice them”

Everybody knows the four cardinal rules of trading, but so few people follow them — 1) Trade with the trend. 2) Cut losses short. 3) Let profits run. 4) Manage risk.

There is a big difference between knowing something and applying it. Most people don't use what they know.


综合指数 2008年 11月 19日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度的失去方向,继续的呈横摆巩固,惟综指最终也稍微下跌0.6%,这使到887点的23.6%胜图自动费氏线继续的成为综指当前的阻力水平,综指接下来的支持水平则是800点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示,布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)其实是综指当前的动态阻力线,所以综指若一日未能上扬突破布林中频带的话,那综指始终还是不能出现转强上扬的走势。另一方面,布林中频带有开始转向下迹象,这表示综指也有暗示转弱的迹象。
无论如何,这一切都要等到布林频带(Bollinger Band)再度明显的打开时,才能确认综指真正的下一个趋势。换句话说,若综指未能短期内上扬突破布林中频带的话,当布林频带开始打开时,综指将有下跌的风险。
如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量稍微增加4.7%,不过成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这表示整体市场还是处于一个淡静的格局,这是因为综指出现横摆巩固,投资者纷纷等待更明朗的讯号,才决定入场交易。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)依然是处于30%以下,这表示综指的短期走势还是处于一个弱势中。通常随机指标将是综指转强的第一个讯号,就是当随机指标上扬突破30%的时候。无论如何,若随机指标继续的维持在30%以下的话,那综指的短期后市依然看第一线



Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/11/2008

As indicated by A, the KLCI continues its sideways movement while the direction is still unclear, closing 0.6% lower to 877.65 points. Therefore, the 887 Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI while the 800 mark is still the support level for the KLCI.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger middle band is still the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, and as long as the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook is still bearish biased. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width is likely to expand, and therefore, the is certainly a risk for the KLCI.

Nevertheless, we still need to wait until the Bollinger Bands Width expands in order to determine the KLCI movement.. If the KLCI should remain below the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands Width expands, it would be a bearish signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 4.7%, but still remain below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is still relatively quiet. But still, it is rather normal to have relatively lower volume during the sideways consolidation.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish signal. As long as the Stochastic is still below 30% level, the market movement for the short term is still bearish biased.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

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