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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

KLCI Good support around 800 / Composite Index 28/10/2008

KLCI Good support around 800

28th October: Approached, breached & rebounded off arithmetic target of 830 amid strong support.

Medium term:


1. Head and Shoulders top daily chart points to 910 - done (log), 830 (arithmetic tested rebound)

2. Head and Shoulders top weekly chart points to 930 - done (log), 860 - done (arithmetic violated) Log done.

Next good support at 800

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 28/10/2008





On Tuesday, the KLCI opened gap down, tested the 800 psychological level before rebound to close at 832.44 points. As mentioned earlier, the 800 points level is the target level for the Head and Shoulder Top pattern, and therefore, the 800 mark is an important level for the KLCI.

As indicated by A, the KLCI formed a long lower shadow candlestick (Hammer), which suggests a chance of a technical rebound for the KLCI. Support for the KLCI is at 800 points while the resistance is at 887 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 30%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, suggesting the immediate outlook is still bearish biased. Generally, the bearish movement is expected to continue unless the Bollinger Bands Width should begin to contract.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 5.3%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is relatively active. If the KLCI should rebound with higher volume, it would be a positive sign. However, if the KLCI should continue to fall with high volume, it would be a sign of increasing selling pressure.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30%, suggesting the short term movement for the KLCI is still bearish biased, and the bearish biased movement is expected to continue unless the Stochastic should break above 30% level.

综合指数 2008年 10月 28日

在全球股市在经过“黑色星期一”下跌的影响下,综合指数开市以下跌跳空,出现了一个缺口(Gap),惟综指在800点的水平获得扶持,这正是我们一直提到的头肩顶(Head & Shoulders)的下跌第一个目标。这800点的水平是综指在跌破了头肩顶的颈线(Neck Line)后,综指下跌的第一个目标,也是可能出现的支持水平。

如图中箭头A所示,综指在出现技术反弹后形成一个长下影线(Long Lower Shadow)的阴阳烛,这也是锤形线(Hammer),这表示综指接下来有望出现回弹的格局。综指当前的支持水平是800点,阻力水平则是887点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)进一步打开30%,而综指已经处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下了,所以综指进一步下跌。通常综指将继续的处于跌势中,直到布林频带收窄或打开的幅度减低为止。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量稍微减少5.3%,不过仍然是处于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这显示市场仍然是相当活跃的,这也表示投机活动也相当的高。无论如何,这些活动都加剧了综指的跌势。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)依然维持在30%以下,这表示综指的短期走势依然属于跌势中,直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2U BY Zhuge Liang

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