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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Composite Index 20/10/2008 综合指数 2008年 10月 20日


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/10/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As mentioned in last week's analysis, the KLCI is still volatile (as indicated by A, soon after opening, the KLCI started falling, and broke below the 900 mark by margin. However, the KLCI managed to rebound and close above the 900 mark, and the support for the KLCI is at 888.28 Fibonacci Retracement and the 900 psychological level, while the resistance is at 953.5 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 7%, suggesting that the KLCI is likely to consolidate from now in the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to contract. But still, if the KLCI should regain its strength, it must first take out the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.3%, suggesting that the overall market participation is still strong. Generally,if volume should continue to stay above the 40-day VMA level, there is a chance for the KLCI to regain some position as the the higher volume means some sufficient buying to absorb the T+3 selling. However, the major factor that affect the KLCI performance is still the global markets performance.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded after breaking below 10% (over-sold region), and therefore, this suggests a chance for a technical rebound. If the Stochastic should break above 30% level, it would be the signal suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound. However, this does not means a short term strength for the KLCI yet, for if the KLCI short term movement was bullish, the Stochastic should remain above the 70% level.

综合指数 2008年 10月 20日

如上周提到般,综合指数继续着动荡的走势(参考箭头A),综指在开市后迅速下跌,一度跌破900点的关口。无论如何综指在888.28点的水平回弹,综指最终以909.51点闭市,按日微扬4.28点或0.5%。综指当前的支持水平是900点的心理支持水平,阻力水平则是953.5点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)收窄7%,所以综指有从之前的跌势站稳下来的迹象。若布林频带接下来继续收窄的话,那综指将有望暂时停止下跌的趋势。惟若综指要真正的止跌的话,那综指就得先上扬突破布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),因为这是综指当前的动态阻力线。
如图中箭头B所示,综指的成交量稍微增加1.3%,这显示市场的交投量保持活跃。因为市场陆续的出现T+3交割日的卖压继续的获得新的买盘吸纳,这对综指继续的转强是有利的。无论如何,综指接下来是否能真的避开进一步下跌则要视各种客观因素及国际市场的影响。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在跌至10%以下的水平后,出现短期超卖的讯号(参考上周的分析),所以随机指标周一上扬突破10%的水平,这显示综指在超卖后出现技术回弹。若随机指标接下来能上扬突破30%的话,这技术反弹的讯号将能获得确认。至于综指的短期走势是否能出现上扬的格局就要等待随机指标上扬突破70%的水平才能获得确认了。

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