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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

CI Daily Technical Analysis 14/10/2008 (English n Mandarin)


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 14/10/2008 By Zhuge Liang

Leading by the Dow Jones Industrial Averages rebounding more than 11%, the Asian Market closed higher, especially the Nikkie 225 Index, closing 14.15% higher. These has attracted some buying on local blue chips, and therefore, the KLCI opened gap up, closing 15.30 points higher.

As shown on the chart, the KLCI pull-back after the over-sold condition, and therefore, the first target for the KLCI is at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance. Together with the Bollinger Middle Band, the Fibonacci Retracement (23.6% Retracement) is also the resistance for the KLCI.

In addition, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 3%, suggesting a consolidation signal for the KLCI. Nevertheless, the KLCI must first break above the Bollinger Middle Band in order to break away from the downside biased movement. Or else, any rebound below the Bollinger Middle Band would only be considered as technical rebound.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 12.3% and stays above the 40-day VMA level. If the volume should remain above 40-day VMA level, it would definitely be a positive element for the KLCI, if the KLCI should attempt to break its resistance.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks above 30%, suggesting a beginning of a short term technical rebound. The technical rebound is likely to continue until the Stochastic should break below 30% level again.

综合指数 2008年 10月 14日
在美国道琼斯指数带领反弹暴涨11.1%下,亚太股市也纷纷报捷,日经指数涨幅更超越了道琼斯,达14..15%。由于市场受到正面的刺激,投资者纷纷进场扯购蓝筹股,这也使到我国综合指数在这影响下开市上扬跳空,使到图表上出现了一个缺口(Gap)。

如图所示,由于综指也继续的受到布林频带拉回效应(Pull Back Effect)的牵引(参考上周的分析),所以综指继续向布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)这反弹目标迈进。无论如何,布林中频带将是综指的动态阻力水平,在加上这也是23.6%的胜图自动费氏线阻力水平,所以综指意料在布林中频带将受到一度的阻力。

另一方面,布林频带收窄3%,这显示综指正从之前的跌势复苏过来,惟综指是必须先上扬突破布林中频带,那综指才有望出现转强的确认讯号,反之任何上扬只能算是纯技术反弹而已。

如图中箭头B所示,由于投资者纷纷被市场的反弹吸引而进场,所以成交量进一步扬升12.3%,继续的维持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这也表示市场继续的活跃,这对综指后市转强是有利的。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)上扬突破了30%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势出现了技术反弹。通常这技术反弹将继续的维持下去,直到随机指标再度跌破30%为止。

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