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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Global Vegoil Price Outlooks Of Key Forecasters

Global vegetable oil traders and company executives provided mixed outlooks for palm oil prices during a palm oil conference organized by the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives that ended Wednesday.

The following are outlooks of the key forecasters

Dorab Mistry, director, Godrej International: The benchmark BMD third-month CPO futures contract may trade in a fairly tight range between MYR2,600 and MYR2,800 a metric ton from now until July, then rise to around MYR3,200 in the second half to first quarter next year as the delayed effects of an ongoing El Nino-induced dry spell may further sap yields and lower palm oil output. He also said Malaysia''s 2010 CPO output will likely fall by 2.3% to 17.2 million tons.

Anne Frick, vice president, futures research, Prudential Bache Commodities: CPO prices may average between MYR2,400 and MYR3,300/ton as supply of the commodity isn''t likely to outpace rising demand. CBOT soyoil prices could average between 36 cents and 46 cents a pound this year as soyoil prices need to rise higher to finance a larger share of soymeal crushing value.

James Fry, chairman, LMC International: BMD CPO futures may fall to MYR2,500/ton if benchmark Brent crude oil falls below $70 a barrel. Palm oil stocks will continue to fall until July and will give seasonal support to CPO prices

Thomas Mielke, director, ISTA Mielke GmbH: CPO prices may rise to MYR2,900/ton, as a slow recovery in Malaysia''s palm production is expected to cut palm inventories. However, prices aren''t likely to rise above MYR3,000/ton. Palm oil prices may close the gap with soyoil--and even trade at a slight premium--soon as a record soybean crop may cap the sharp rise in soyoil prices while palm prices strengthen.

Yong Chin Fatt, chief trader at IOI Corp.: CPO prices may rise to MYR2,800/ton by May if palm oil production remains weak.

M.R. Chandran, senior group advisor, Platinum Energy: CPO prices may move in a MYR2,500-MYR2,750/ton range in the second half of the year.

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