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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 20日 / Composite Index 20/01/2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 20 By Zhuge Liang


由于亚太市场继续在国际市场传来的坏消息的影响下滑落,综合指数也不例外,周二综指下跌了1.1%。如图中箭头A所示,综指跌破了887点的胜图自动费氏线,所以887点目前反过来成为了综指当前的阻力水平,综指接下来的支持水平则落在869点及853点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始打开(24%),而综指则继续的维持在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,所以综指出现了下跌的趋势。通常综指将继续的下滑,直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量进一步萎缩10.9%,这使到成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这显示综指目前继续的处于调整巩固的格局里。通常在综指出现下跌趋势时,成交量低并不代表综指跌幅低,这一点与综指上扬时有所不同。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)已经跌破了30%,所以综指的短期走势目前已经是处于一个下跌的格局中,直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。无论如何,随机指标已经下跌得非常接近0%的水平,所以这也是综指短期超卖的迹象,有望引发技术反弹,不过若随机指标一日未能突破30%的话,那综指的短期走势还是属于偏弱的。

总的来说,从布林频带的讯号中确定了综指出现了另一轮的跌势,至于综指的跌势何时结束目前则是言之过早,通常随机指标回弹并突破30%或布林频带收窄将是短期跌势结束的第一个讯号。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/01/2009

On Tuesday, the KLCI was hit by negative news across the region, closing 1.1% lower. As indicated by A, the KLCI fell below the 887 Fibonacci Retracement and the next support for the KLCI is at 869 followed by 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 24%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width suggesting a bearish movement for the KLCI. The bearish movement for the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width contracts again.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 10.9%, with volume staying below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is relatively lower, thus the KLCI is losing its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. Therefore, the short term bearish movement of the KLCI continues, until the Stochastic break above the 30% level successfully. Meanwhile, since the Stochastic is nearly at 0%, it suggests that the KLCI might be over-sold, and therefore, a technical rebound is likely to take place in the near future. But still, to confirm the technical rebound, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level. Until that, the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the negative side.

In conclusion, the Bollinger Bands Width has shown a bearish direction for the KLCI, and for now, the bearish movement of the KLCI is likely to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, which would suggest another consolidation for the KLCI.

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