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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 20日 / Composite Index 20/01/2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 20 By Zhuge Liang


如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始打开(24%),而综指则继续的维持在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,所以综指出现了下跌的趋势。通常综指将继续的下滑,直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止。




Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/01/2009

On Tuesday, the KLCI was hit by negative news across the region, closing 1.1% lower. As indicated by A, the KLCI fell below the 887 Fibonacci Retracement and the next support for the KLCI is at 869 followed by 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 24%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width suggesting a bearish movement for the KLCI. The bearish movement for the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width contracts again.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined another 10.9%, with volume staying below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is relatively lower, thus the KLCI is losing its strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. Therefore, the short term bearish movement of the KLCI continues, until the Stochastic break above the 30% level successfully. Meanwhile, since the Stochastic is nearly at 0%, it suggests that the KLCI might be over-sold, and therefore, a technical rebound is likely to take place in the near future. But still, to confirm the technical rebound, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level. Until that, the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the negative side.

In conclusion, the Bollinger Bands Width has shown a bearish direction for the KLCI, and for now, the bearish movement of the KLCI is likely to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, which would suggest another consolidation for the KLCI.

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