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Friday, January 16, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 15日 / Composite Index 15/01/2009

By Zhuge Liang
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 15/01/2009
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The KLCI lost 16.01 points on Thursday as led by lossses of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index as well as the regional major indices. As indicated by A, the KLCI broke below the Bollinger Middle Band, as well as the important 900 level. Support for the KLCI is at 887 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the immediate resistance is at 900 level.

Despite the KLCI ended lower, the Bollinger Bands Width remains contracting, suggesting that the KLCI is still in its consolidation. However, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside risk for the KLCI is expected.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 32.8%, suggested some increased of selling pressure. However, the increased of volume also suggested some bargain buying, and therefore, we still have to wait until a clearer Bollinger Bands signal to determine the direction for the KLCI.

As circled at C, the MACD Histogram is still showing a rounding top, suggested that the KLCI is still consolidating with some weakening biased. The weakening movement is likely to continue until the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom. In short, unless the KLCI could return to above the Bollinger Middle Band in the near future, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is turning weaker as it break below the Bollinger Middle Band.

综合指数 2009年 01月 15日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数在美国及亚太股市纷纷报跌的影响下也滑落了1.8%,如图所示,综指跌破了布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持线以及900点的心理支持水平,综指当前的支持水平落在887点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则是900点。

如图所示,虽然综指跌破了布林中频带,所幸的是布林频带(Bollinger Band)依然是处于一个收窄的格局,这表示综指目前还是属于一个调整巩固的格局,并未出现真正的下跌趋势。无论如何,若在布林频带开始打开时,综指还是处于布林中频带以下的话,那综指将形成一个下跌的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示,虽然综指下跌,不过成交量却增长32.8%,这显示市场出现了大幅度的套利离场活动,不过也有一定数量的投资者乘低吸购。目前鹿死谁手还是未知之数,这得要等到布林频带开始再度打开才能确定。

如图中箭头C所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogran)继续的形成一个圆顶(Rouding Top),所以综指继续的处于一个短期的调整格局中,直到振荡指标形成一个相对的圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。

总的来说,综指有进一步转弱的迹象,惟若综指能在布林频带打开前先一步重新返回布林中频带以上的话,那综指还是有望再度转强的。

HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL
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