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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 14日 / Composite Index 14/01/2009

By ZHUGE LIANG

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 14/01/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 920 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is still at 900 psychological level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 19%, suggesting that the consolidation of the KLCI is still intact, until the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand. If the KLCI should break below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall turn to bearish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 12%, but still above the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the overall market is still well-participated. Still, if volume should continue to decline, it is still a normal sign as the KLCI is still consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is breaking below the 70% level marginally, suggesting that the KLCI is consolidating. If the Stochastic should return to above 70% level, it would be the signal suggesting the end of the consolidation, and the KLCI is likely to resume its short term bullish biased movement. To sum up, we still need to wait until the Bollinger Bands Width expands to determine the next movement of the KLCI.

综合指数 2009年 01月 14日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持,所以布林中频带继续的成为综指的动态支持线,综指当前的阻力水平仍然是920点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则落在900点的心理支持水平。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)继续收窄19%,这表示综指依然是处于一个调整巩固的格局,直到布林频带再度打开为止。无论如何,若综指跌破了布林中频带的话,那综指就会有出现转弱的风险。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量减少12%,不过成交量还是成功的达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这表示整体市场交投依然算是处于一个健康的水平。若成交量接下来继续减少的话,那成交量则会低于40天的平均值,这是市场淡静的讯号,不过这情形在综指横摆巩固时是一个正常的现象。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)在稍微低于70%的水平横摆,这显示综指的短期走势目前正处于一个横摆巩固的格局,无论如何,随机指标还是得再度上扬突破70%的水平,那综指的短期走势才有望再度出现上扬的趋势。

总的来说,由于布林频带收窄,所以综指目前正在一个调整巩固的格局,直到布林频带再度打开为止,届时综指处于布林中频带的为止将决定新趋势的方向。
HAPPY INVESTING & GOODLUCK2ALL

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