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Tuesday, January 13, 2009

综合指数 2009年 01月 13日 / Composite Index 13/01/2009

By Zhuge Liang
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 1301/2009

As the regional market mostly ended lower, the KLCI was dragged 1.1% on Tuesday, breaking below the 920 level. As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded precisely again on the Bollinger Middle Band, and the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is now 920 while the support is still at 900 psychological level.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 9%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, while the market direction for the KLCI is still unclear.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Tuesday was 10.2% lower, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still actively participated. If volume should continue to decline, it is still a typical characteristic of a consolidation market.

As indicated by C, the MACD histogram is still falling while no rounding bottom is sighted yet; this shows that the KLCI is still in a consolidation. To sum up, the direction for the KLCI is still unclear for now, and we shall have to wait until the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width to determine the new movement for the KLCI.

综合指数 2009年 01月 13日

综合指数在亚太股市纷纷下跌的拖累下滑落1.1%,使到综指再度跌破920点的胜图自动费氏线。如图中箭头A所示,综指精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)上获得扶持,所以布林中频带将继续成为综指的动态支持线。综指接下来的阻力水平是920点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是900点的心理支持关口。

如图示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)收窄9%,所以综指目前仍然处于调整巩固的格局,还是未出现真正转强的反弹,直到布林频带再度打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量在综指下滑的情形下也下跌10.2%,惟成交量还是成功的维持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,这表示整体市场的交投还是维持在一个相当活跃的格局。不过若成交量开始跌破40天平均值的话,那就表示市场开始出现淡静的格局,这通常是综指形成下跌或巩固的典型讯号。

如图中箭头C所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD’s Histogram)下滑,形成一个圆顶(Rounding Top)的状态,所以综指有形成一个调整巩固的迹象,直到振荡指标开始形成一个相对的圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。

总的来说,综指在布林频带收窄的情形下出现调整巩固的格局,通常综指将会维持目前的状态,直到布林频带再度打开为止。


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