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Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Investing vs Gambling / 综合指数 2008年 12月 01日 / Composite Index 01/12/2008

Investing vs Gambling By Zhuge Liang

“Investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if it goes the wrong way, they lose it all.” Jesse Livermore


Not having an exit strategy before initiating a trading position is worse than gambling, where you realize that the chance to lose is too big, therefore you risk only money you can afford to lose. Not having a stop loss means that you are most likely risking more than you could afford to lose. As they say amateurs go out of business because of taking big losses. Professionals go out of business by taking small profits. Cut your losses short when your stop level is hit. Even more, make sure to put your stop loss order immediately after you initiate a trade.. Put your stop loss at a place where the trend you are following will be over. Let your profits run by gradually lifting your profit protection stop order. In order to maximize your profits you have to be willing to give some of them back.

"I don’t believe anyone ever gets wiped out in the market because of bad luck; there is always some other reason for it. Either you were off when you did the trade, or you didn’t have the experience. There is always a mistake involved.”

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综合指数 2008年 12月 01日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数再度精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)遇到阻力而回软,所以布林中频带继续的成为综指接下来的主要阻力线。综指另一道阻力水平则是887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则落在801点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始打开10%,不过综指始终处于布林中频带以下,这表示若布林频带接下来继续打开的话,那综指的后市将会被看低一线。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量进一步下挫32%,使到成交量继续的处于40天平均值以下,这是市场低迷的讯号;通常这表示投资者继续的市场没有明确的方向下,采取离场观望的态度。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)迅速的跌回30%以下,这表示综指的短期走势还是飘浮不定。无论如何,虽然随机指标低于30%显示市场普遍上是属于弱势中,不过图中随机指标跌至0%的水平,这表示综指出现超卖的显现,所以综指的后市还是有出现短期技术反弹的可能。

总的来说,综指继续的处于弱势中,惟综指有望在市场形成短期超卖后出现技术反弹。


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 01/12/2008

On Monday, the KLCI retested the Bollinger Middle Band, and retreated soon after resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still an important resistance level for the KLCI. (Study A). Other resistance for the KLCI is at 885 Fibonacci Retracement while the support for the KLCI is still at 801 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 10% on Monday, with the KLCI remained below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expands, there are more downside risk for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 32%, and the volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is indeed very quiet as investors are still waiting on the sidelines.

As circled at C, the Stochastic dropped quickly on Monday, breaking below 30% level and reached the 0% level. This shows that the market movement for the short term is now back to bearish biased. But since the Stochastic is now touching 0% level, this shows that the short term KLCI movement has gone over-sold, and therefore, a technical rebound is likely to take place in the near future.

Generally, the bearish view of the KLCI is still intact, except for a chance of a technical rebound in the near future as the short term is slightly over-sold.


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