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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Faith, Doubt, and Warren Buffett / 综合指数 2008年 12月 15日 / Composite Index 15/12/2008

Faith, Doubt, and Warren Buffett By Zhuge Liang

It's been a difficult year for the Warren Buffett faithful. Core beliefs are being tested.
Stock prices have plunged as the government struggles to contain the damage from what appears to be the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Berkshire Hathaway is no exception. In late November, the Class A shares traded as low as $74,100 each. That was over 51 percent below their December 2007 all-time intraday high of $151,650.
After a rebound that took the stock back into six-digit territory, it is once again trading below $100,000.
Berkshire's net earnings plunged 77 percent in the third quarter, as Buffett's long-term wager on the health of global stocks racked up billions in short-term paper losses.

Is Warren Buffett Losing His Touch?
The Wall Street Journal urges him to "get a new crystal ball." Buffett isn't worried.. "It's happened before. A capitalist systen overshoots .. but it works very well over time."

Almost two months ago, he told the world he's enthusiastically buying U.S. stocks for his own account, picking up a "slice of America's future at a marked-down price." But over those two months, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index has dropped another 8 percent.

Faith says that just as we know that winter won't last forever, we also know that stocks will eventually bloom again, too. Buy now while the nights are long and the storm rages, even if it is a "perfect" storm.

Doubt replies that this time, it's different. The financial markets don't move as reliably as the Sun and the Earth. Spring looks like it will be very, very late this time around. Things could get worse, and they will never be as good as they were.
For many Buffett followers, being "greedy when others are fearful" is a matter of faith, an acceptance of the idea that they should stay on the 'right' path despite all the nagging doubts that they're heading in the 'wrong' direction.

This is an invitation to share your thoughts. Are you losing your faith in Warren Buffett? In the style of investing that he has preached all these years?


Pls post your views & comments in Bursa - Chat. TQVM.
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综合指数 2008年 12月 15日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数稍微下滑,惟综指还是成功的在布林中频带获得扶持,这也继续的成为综指当前的动态支持线。另外887点的胜图自动费氏线继依然是综指的阻力水平,支持水平则落在800点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)进一步收窄17%,这表示综指继续的维持在横摆巩固的格局里,这也意味着综指继续的酝酿着一个新的趋势,而新趋势只在布林频带再度打开时才会浮现出来。另一方面,综指目前始终是处于一个由T1及T2组成的下降轨道(Descending Trend Channel)内,所以综指整体上是属于一个下降的趋势里,直到综指上扬突破T1趋势线为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量成交量下降6.2%,所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这表示投资者还是对综指的后市抱着谨慎的态度,继续的离场观望,这也是成交量在综指横摆时的典型状态。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)进一步下滑,并且跌破50%的水平,这表示综指的短期走势继续的转弱,不过由于布林频带还未开始打开,所以综指的短期走势还不能确定是出现了跌势。

总的来说,由于布林频带还是属于收窄的情形,所以综指目前算是处于一个横摆巩固或不明朗的格局,换句话说,综指必须等到布林频带再度打开时,才能摆脱目前的僵局。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 15/12/2008

On Monday, the KLCI ended slightly lower but still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band (as indicated by A). Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band can serve as the dynamic support for the KLCI. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 887 Fibonacci Retracement while 800 point is still the support level.

As shown on chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 17%, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI is still intact. Also, this implies that the KLCI is still preparing for a new direction, and the new direction shall be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands. On the other hand, the KLCI is still trading under the T1 and T2 downtrend channel, and therefore, unless the KLCI could break out successfully above the T1 line, the downtrend shall remains intact.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6.2%, and volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting the overall market participation is still low. This is generally normal as the KLCI is still consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic falls and break below 50% level, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side. Still, since the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, signal from the Stochastic might be a little over sensitive.

In short, the market movement for the KLCI is still unclear as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting. Therefore, we will still have to wait until the Bollinger Bands Width to expand before determining the next direction for the KLCI.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL


BACK TO CHAT BOX

1 comment:

Rocky said...

"Buy & Hold" investing will kill by a "perfect storm" OR stock will bounce back??

I'm NOT a big fan of long term holding :p

Warren Buffet is known as America's wisest investor. He is no doubt the most successful investor in the 20th century.

Ppl have been optimistic since the start of the mkt melt down since its height in Oct 2007. As the mkt began to sink they were told to hang in there. The word 'recession' was avoided like the plague on tout TV and not mentioned until March 2008.

Then the stock holders were told to remember long term investing is the key to financial wealth building. As the mkt continued to burn away the saving of American ppl month by month... they were told Warren Buffet was BUYING...

Know how much WB lost up to todate?? U have the holding power like him??

Deflation indicators already shown little by little...I hope it won't BUT IF it happens...look at Japan... Buy & Hold?? Thanks But NO Thanks. I would rather play safe than earn more $$.

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