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Friday, December 19, 2008

Composite Index 18/12/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 12月 18日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 18/12/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 47% with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, it is a bullish signal for the KLCI, as the KLCI rose 2.1%. Therefore, the KLCI has broken above the downtrend channel of T1 and T2. Other than the T1 support line, the 800 points is still an important support level. As long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, the bullish biased Bollinger Bands signal is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 48.9%, which suggesting an improvement is market participation. The increase of market participation is definitely a positive sign. Nevertheless, volume above the 40-day VMA level is an important criteria for the KLCI to sustain its bullish movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still rising while above the 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, the market movement for the short term is now bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would mark an end to the short term bullish signal, and suggest a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width and the increase of volume would definitely help lifting the market sentiment.

综合指数 2008年 12月 18日

如图中箭头A所示,由于布林频带(Bollinger Band)明显的打开47%,所以综合指数上扬2.1%,使到综指成功的摆脱了T1及T2组成的下降趋势轨道(Descending Treand Channel)。如图所示,综指当前的支持水平除了T1之外,就是布林中频带这到动态支持线,综指再下一道的支持水平则落在800点的胜图自动费氏线。

由于布林频带刚开始明显的打开,而综指继续的处于布林中频带以上,这意味着只要布林频带继续的维持在打开格局的话,那综指的上扬趋势将有望持续下去,直到布林频带打开的幅度下降或收窄为止。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加了48.9%,这表示投资者开始回笼,这出现在综指上扬转强时是对综指的后市有着正面的作用。若成交量接下来能持续增长至40天成交量移动平均线的话,那综指的上扬趋势将有望在高成交量的承托下继续维持下去。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)再度走高,这意味着综指的短期走势继续的属于上扬的格局。通常综指的短期趋势将有望继续的走强,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说,由于期待已久的布林频带打开讯号已经出现了,所以综指开始走强,另外由于综指摆脱了自8月来的T1-T2下降趋势轨道,这显示只要市场进一步的获得成交量扶持的话,那综指将有继续转强的走势。
maya karin

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