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Thursday, December 11, 2008

Bollinger Bands / 综合指数 2008年 12月 10日 / Composite Index 10/12/2008

Bollinger Bands By Zhuge Liang

Bollinger Bands were invented by John Bollinger. Used to confirm trading signals, normally from a Momentum Indicator the bands indicate overbought and oversold levels relative to a moving average.

Bollinger Bands are calculated at a specified number of standard deviations above and below the moving average, causing them to widen when prices are volatile and contract when prices are stable.

Bollinger originally used a 20 day simple moving average and set the bands at 2 standard deviations, suited to intermediate cycles.

Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply.

This is one of the most popular technical analysis techniques. The closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.
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综合指数 2008年 12月 10日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数跟随亚太股市上扬,并且稍微突破了布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),这表示综指有望出现转强的趋势。无论如何,综指还是要等到布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始明显的打开,那综指才能确认出现上扬的趋势。

如图所示,布林频带目前打开的幅度是0%,所以若综指接下来继续的上扬以及站在布林中频带以上,那布林频带将会出现打开的情形,这将是综指确认上扬的讯号。

综指当前的阻力水平依然是887点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则还是落在800点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示,虽然综指上扬,不过成交量却比周二低12.4%,这显示投资者还是对综指的后市有所保留,所以并未大举进场。通常综指是需要成交量持续的增加至40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,综指才能确认上扬的趋势。

如周二提到一样,随机指标在连续处于零水平后,这表示综指已经出现了短期超卖的现象,所以周三综指出现了技术反弹。如图中C圈所示,随机指标上扬突破30%,所以综指的短期出现了预料中的技术反弹。

总的来说,随机指标目前已经来到了50%以上的水平,若随机指标能持续上扬并突破70%的话,那综指的短期走势将有望出现上扬的趋势。另一方面,综指接下来是必须保持在布林中频带的位置,那综指才有望继续出现转强的趋势。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 10/12/2008
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the Bollinger Middle Band by margin on Wednesday, as the Asian markets ended broadly higher. Breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band is crucial for the KLCI, and if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a positive signal for the KLCI.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 0%, suggesting the KLCI is currently still consolidating. Support for the KLCI is still at 800 points while the 877 Fibonacci Retracement is still the next resistance for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, although the KLCI ended higher, total market volume was 12.4% lower, while still below the 40-day VMA level. It is important to have volume above the 40-day VMA level in order to sustain any bullish movement of the KLCI.

As mentioned on Tuesday's analysis, the Stochastic rebounded after touching 0% level, as it was over-sold. As a result, the KLCI rebounded on Wednesday. As circled at C, the Stochastic is breaking above the 30% level, suggesting a beginning of a technical rebound.

With the Stochastic at the 50% level now, the market movement for the short term is at neutral. If the Stochastic should break above 70% level, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI. And definitely, the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band is another criteria for the KLCI to sustain its positive movement.

GOODLUCK2ALL

1 comment:

Ivan said...

hi ZL,

In the pass days TA Analaysis, I always see that you mention this statement :
Support for the KLCI is still at 800 points while the 877 Fibonacci

Isnt 800 and 877 is a big cap? Can have a small gap for s/term investor/ trader?supoiort
Sorry. Just express my view.

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