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Thursday, December 4, 2008

Adding To A Loser / 综合指数 2008年 12月 03日 / Composite Index 03/12/2008

Adding To A Loser By Zhuge Liang

The action of a trader/investor increasing a position in an asset when its price is heading in the direction that's opposite to what the investor/trader desires. This is generally not a wise investment decision because unless the asset begins to move in the desired direction, the investor's losses will increase.


An investor might add to a losing position instead of closing it because he or she gets emotionally attached to the asset and has a hard time accepting that it was a bad investment. Once the trade moves substantially in the wrong direction, however, it may be time to consider closing out or re-evaluating the reason for having the position rather than putting more money at risk.
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综合指数 2008年 12月 03日


如图中箭头A所示,综合指数稍微上扬,惟还是处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,这表示综指目前还是处于偏弱的状态。通常综指是必须先上扬突破布林中频带,那综指才能有望出现转强的讯号。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)收窄11%,这表示综指正在处于一个调整巩固的格局,直到布林频带再度打开为止。当布林频带再度打开时,综指处于布林中频带的相应位置将是综指新趋势的方向。

如图中箭头B所示,虽然成交量上扬4.9%,不过成交量还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)的水平,所以综指的整体表现还是属于一个淡静的格局。无论如何,这是综指在布林频带收窄及综指横摆时的典型状态,惟当综指在出现上扬趋势时,成交量是必须上扬达到40天平均值,综指的涨势才能算是获得成交量的确认。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)继续在触及0%后回弹,这显示综指在短期超卖后(随机指标跌至0%)出现技术反弹。若随机指标接下来能上扬突破30%的话,那综指短期的走势将有望继续转强。

总的来说,由于综指始终处于T1及T2的下降轨道内,所以综指目前是在下降趋势中稍微出现短期技术反弹的迹象,综指是否能转为上扬的趋势得要等到布林频带再度打开是方能确认。
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Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 03/12/2008

As indicated by A, although the KLCI ended slightly higher on Wednesday, it is still below the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance. This shows that the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the weaker side.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 11%, suggesting the volatility of the KLCI is still declining, thus a signal of a consolidation. Meanwhile, as the KLCI consolidate, the direction of the KLCI shall remains unclear, until a re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, and the new direction of the KLCI will be determined by the position of the KLCI above or below the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 4.9%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still relatively quiet as the market sentiment is generally weak. Again, it is usually normal to see lower volume as the KLCI is consolidating. However, if the KLCI should attempt to break its resistances, volume above the 40-day VMA level is need to confirm any breakouts.

As circled at C, the Stochastic continue to rebound after touching 0% level, as a rebound after the KLCI was over-sold. If the Stochastic should break above 30% level, it would break away from the short term bearish region.

In general, the downtrend of the KLCI (T1 and T2 channel) is still in place, and for the moment, we still have to wait until a clearer signal from the Bollinger Bands Width to see if there is any chances for the KLCI to break away from the downtrend.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

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