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Monday, November 10, 2008

Obamanomics / 综合指数 2008年 11月 7日 / KLCI Technical Analysis 07/11/2008

Obamanomics By Zhuge Liang
A buzzword that describes the economic philosophy of 2008 democratic presidential elect Barack Obama. Obamanomics calls for lower tax rates for companies that meet certain criteria, such as providing decent healthcare and maintaining a U.S. workforce and headquarters. Obama's economic platform also calls for higher taxes for high-income families and investment in education, healthcare and the sciences.

Obamanomics generally stands in opposition to supply-side, or "trickle-down", economics, which holds that people (including the rich) should keep more of what they earn because they will spend that money, promoting economic growth. Obamanomics shares some similarities with Keynesian economics, which states that active government intervention and monetary policy can smooth out bumps in economic cycles and promote stability.



综合指数 2008年 11月 7日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数早盘继续的出现调整的格局,惟综指精确的在布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)获得扶持而回弹,所以布林中频带这动态支持线将继续的成为综指接下来的重要支持线。综指当前的阻力水平则是900点的心理阻力水平以及940点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则仍然是887点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)继续的收窄(-3%),这表示综指继续的处于一个调整巩固的格局。由于综指在布林中频带上获得扶持,所以若布林频带接下来开始明显打开的话,那综指将有望结束调整而再度上扬。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量上扬51.9%,再度达到了40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上的水平,这显示整体市场再度恢复活跃,这表示综指在布林中频带的水平获得相当大支持。

虽然综指下调,不过如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)依然成功的维持在70%以上,所以综指的短期走势依然是属于短期上扬的格局内,直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

以图表来分析,由于综指的技术调整在布林中频带获得扶持,再加上成交量也达到40天平均值的水平,所以综指有望在布林中频带以上继续的回弹。惟若综指要真正的形成上扬趋势的话,那就得等到布林频带开始明显打开方可获得确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 07/11/2008

As indicated by A, the KLCI opened lower again on Friday morning, but it managed to rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, and regained most of its early lost. Therefore, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support for the KLCI, while the 900 and 940 level are the next resistance levels. Other support is seen at 887 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement..

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting (3%), suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expands again with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a positive signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 51.9%, and returned to above the 40-day VMA level. This is a good sign suggesting the market is actively participated again as the KLCI regains its position. If the KLCI should continue to climb with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the positive sentiment is expected to continue.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. As long as the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, the short term market movement is expected to be bullish biased.

With the KLCI supported above the Bollinger Middle Band, together with the volume above the 40-day VMA level, the immediate outlook is slightly on the bullish side. The only confirmation to the bullish biased movement would be a clear expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

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