Composite Index 31/10/2008 综合指数 2008年 10月 31日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 31/10/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI continues its technical rebound on Friday and precisely resisted at T2 line. This shows that the T2 line is temporary the resistance for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the 887 Fibonacci Retracement is the next resistance for the KLCI, while support remains at the 800 mark.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 14%, suggesting the KLCI is consolidating, and the first target of the technical rebound is usually at the Bollinger Middle Band. In other words, the KLCI has to break above the Bollinger Middle Band in order to break away from the bearish region.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 16.7%, but still above the 40-day VMA level, therefore, suggesting the overall market is still relatively active. Generally, if the KLCI should rebound with strong volume, it is a positive sign.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now reaching 50% level after breaking above the 30% level, suggesting a continuation of its technical rebound. If the Stochastic should break above 70% level, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

To sum up, the KLCI is now testing the T2 line as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance, and therefore, with the market sentiment remain weak, the outlook for the KLCI would still be bearish biased if the KLCI should fail to break above these resistance lines.

综合指数 2008年 10月 31日 By Zhuge Liang

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数延续技术反弹的上扬趋势，惟综指精确的在周四提到的T2下降趋势线遇到阻力，这表示T2将继续的成为综指当前的阻力水平。另一方面，887点的胜图自动费氏线也将是综指接下来的阻力水平，支持水平则是800点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）收窄14%，所以综指继续从之前的跌势反过来出现技术反弹。综指目前接近布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这是综指技术反弹的第一个目标以及动态阻力线，换句话说，综指必须先上扬突破布林中频带，综指才有望持续出现转强的走势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股的成交量减少16.7%，惟还是继续的处于40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，所以整体市场继续的维持在高活跃的格局里。通常当综指上扬或反弹时，若成交量能维持在40天平均值以上的话，那综指将有望继续维持转强的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上扬达到50%的水平，所以综指的短期走势继续的向上，若随机指标能上扬突破70%的话，那综指将有望从技术反弹转为短期上扬的趋势。

总的来说，综指周五遇到了技术性的阻力线（T2）以及接下来将面对布林中频带的阻力，所以综指接下来上扬的动力将面对相当大的挑战。若综指未被更多利好的因素推动的话，综指接下来出现套利的风险将越来越高。

HAPPY TRADING FOLKS