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Monday, November 17, 2008

CHANGING WITH THE MARKET


CHANGING WITH THE MARKET By Zhuge Liang

When the market changes, we must change our tactics, strategies, and analysis techniques to accommodate the new market conditions. This is not a new idea, but it is one that is not very widely recognized, particularly when applied to the long-term. In recent writings I have emphasized that we are in a bear market, and that we must play by bear market rules. Overbought conditions will usually signal a price tops, and oversold conditions can often see prices slip lower to even more oversold conditions. When making these comments, ZL's focus has been on the cyclical bull and bear markets.

Unfortunately, it takes time to unlearn the lessons of the heady bullrun of 186, 1996 & 2006/7, and we can still observe people using bogus valuation models that only work in bull markets. We still see people trying to pick bottoms, and we still see people who think that a stock is under valued because it is down 70%. By the time this current secular market phase is over, people will have learned all new rules, that will not apply to the next 20 years.

Whether or not ZL have correctly identified the current secular market phase as a consolidation remains to be seen, but I am certain that we are no longer operating on the rules of the last secular bull market.

SEE$$$TAKE$$$

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