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Thursday, November 27, 2008

Cable / Composite Index 26/11/2008 / 综合指数 2008年 11月 26日

Cable By ZHUGE LIANG

A slang used among forex traders referring to the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the British pound sterling. Because it is the norm in forex for most major currencies to be quoted against the U.S. dollar on a regular basis, "cable" is a commonly used term.

"Cable" can also be used to refer simply to the British pound sterling

For example, you may hear someone dealing with the forex market saying, "The cable is up today," or, "The cable has been trending lower lately."

The origins of this term are attributed to the fact that in the 1800s, the dollar/pound sterling exchange rate was transmitted via transatlantic cable. Forex brokers are sometimes referred to as "cable dealers".


Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 26/11/2008

On Wednesday, the Bollinger Bands Width of the KLCI contracted 2%, suggesting lower volatility, thus implying a consolidation for the KLCI which ended today 3.81 points lower. However, the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the immediate outlook is still cautiously bearish biased. Therefore, breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band is compulsory for the KLCI for any further progress.

Support for the KLCI is still at 800 mark while the 887 Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI. According to the chart, the KLCI is still within the confine of it's downtrend channel, and therefore, the downtrend remains intact.

As indicated by B, total market declined another 22.2%, and the volume remains below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is relatively low as investors are still on the side lines. Nevertheless, the low volume is usually typical for the KLCI is still consolidating.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still below 30% level, in which the short term bearish signal remains intact. In short, unless the Stochastic could break above 30% level successfully, the market movement for the short term is likely to be bearish biased. If the Stochastic should also break above 70% level, it would be a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

综合指数 2008年 11月 26日

如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)收窄2%,所以综合指数继续的以窄幅波动,微跌了3.81点。无论如何,由于综指始终是处于布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以下,所以综指继续有转弱的风险,除非综指回弹至布林中频带以上。

综指当前的支持水平继续的落在800点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则为止在887点的胜图自动费氏线。我们也可以从图中看到综指近期继续一直都是处于一个下降趋势轨道(Descending Channel)内,所以综指一路都是缓缓下滑,直到综指能成功上扬突破此下降轨道。

如图中箭头B所示,成交量进一步滑落22.2%,所以成交量继续的低于40天成交量移动平均线(VMA),这显示投资者继续的在对市场后市不明朗的情形下继续的离场观望。通常在布林频带收窄时,成交量低于40天成交量移动平均线是一个典型的状况,这表示市场目前是处于一个调整巩固的格局。

如图中C圈指示,随机指标(Stochastic)目前还是处于30%以下,这表示综指的短期走势继续的属于弱势中。无论如何,若随机指标开始上扬突破30%时,那将是综指出现技术反弹的先兆,不过随机指标是必须上扬至70%的水平,综指的短期走势才能确认为形成上扬的格局。

3 comments:

Ivan said...

Hi ZL,

I will like to suggest you post your comment after the market close.

Thus, reader ( like me ) can learn and digest / follow the market movement by tomorrow/ next market day.

Sorry. My comment maybe hard for you ..but it actually easy for reader to learn from you . . .

No ofense. Thank you

Ivan said...

Hi ZL,

I think by drop my q here..it will be easy to get your attention . .

a) What is the good price enter Ramunnia? 45 sen?

b) Why you love using SMA 5 / 15 / 30 mins ? Base on your experience or it is commonly use by all day trader? Basically how to determine what "number" need to use?

c) Seem you are a day trader wo .. Would you mind if I visit you office by this coming monday to learn from you?

( to be cont. . )

Ivan said...

Seem Zl,

mostly busy. .
suan liao lo . . .

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