综合指数 2008年 11月 4日 Composite Index 04/11/2008

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 04/11/2008 By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI failed to sustain its early gains, ended with a Doji candlestick gaining with only 6.23 points. The narrow candlestick of the KLCI suggests a mixed sentiment for the market as profit taking activities increased. If the selling should remains strong, the KLCI would end its technical rebound. Support for the KLCI is at 900 points and 887 Fibonacci Retracement, while the resistance is at 940 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 0% on Tuesday, suggesting the KLCI is at a critical situation. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be the bullish biased signal for the KLCI. On the other hand, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bearish biased signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 13.6%, with the volume clearly above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, in short, the market is actively participated.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above the 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. Therefore, as long as the Stochastic could maintain above 70% level, the short term bullish movement is expected to continue. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would end the current technical rebound.

In short, some increase of selling pressure is seen after the KLCI rose for 4 consecutive trading days. Therefore, more buying interests is required to off-set the selling pressure, in order for the KLCI to continue its rally.

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL

综合指数 2008年 11月 4日 By Zhuge Liang

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数早盘在开高后回软，这是套利活动所致。无论如何，综指在887点的胜图自动费氏线获得扶持而回弹，使到综指形成了一个十字型的阴阳烛。这十字型表示由于套利活动增加，使到买盘及卖盘势均力敌，所以若市场接下来还未有更多利好的因素，那综指将有出现技术调整的可能。综指当前的阻力是940点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是900点的心理支持水平以及887点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Band）打开的幅度为0%，这表示综指接下来是关键性的时机；因为若布林频带接下来开始打开的话，那综指将出现“布林反转讯号”，那综指的后市将有望更上一层楼，惟综指届时必须要维持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）这动态支持线上扬。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增长13.6%，继续的维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场继续的维持在一个交投活跃的状态，继续为综指的短期上扬趋势保温。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）目前仍然维持在70%以上，这印证了综指的短期走势仍然是属于上扬的，惟若随机指标跌破了70%的话，这就表示综指的短期涨势出现了技术调整，属于短期的下滑讯号。

总的来看，综指在5个交易日连续上扬后，卖盘逐渐的增加，这是短期套利获得的现象。无论如何，若市场接下来能吸纳这些卖压的话，综指的后市仍然有望看高一线。