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Friday, October 10, 2008

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 09/10/2008


By Zhuge Liang

As indicated by A, the KLCI lost 1.30 points, forming a narrow candlestick, which is a sign of a decelerating of its downtrend; thus, a chance of a consolidation for the KLCI. Support for the KLCI is at 960 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1008 Fibonacci Retracement (23.6% Fibo).

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 20%. If compared with the previous expansion rate of 60%, Thursday's expansion is relatively smaller. If the Bollinger Bands Width should starts to contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI, and the KLCI is likely to rebound and re-test the Bollinger Middle Band, which is usually the first target of a technical rebound.

However, the Bollinger Middle Band is also the dynamic resistance for the KLCI. In other words, breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band is not going to be easy, unless the KLCI is supported with positive sentiment. If the KLCI should break above the Bollinger Middle Band successfully, it is possible to end its downtrend.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 24.5%, but still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is still widely participated, and if volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level as the KLCI rebound, it would help to lift the market confidence, thus a crucial element for the KLCI to break above the downtrend.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is now below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. As long as the Stochastic is still below 30%, the short term bearish movement for the KLCI is expected to continue.

HAPPY TRADING FOLKS

综合指数 2008年 10月 09日

如图中箭头A所示,综合指数稍微下滑1.30点,形成了一个小阴阳烛(Small Candlestick),这是综指跌势有缓和下来的迹象。综指当前的支持水平是960点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则是1008点的23.6%胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Band)打开的幅度从周三的60%减低至20%,这表示综指的跌势有停下来的迹象。若布林频带接下来打开的幅度继续减低甚至开始出现收窄的话,那综指将有望出现技术反弹。通常当综指出现技术反弹时,综指反弹的第一个目标将是布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band),不过由于布林中频带是综指的动态阻力,所以综指将在布林中频带遇到阻力。

换句话说,综指是不容易突破布林中频带的,除非综指获得强而有力的扶持。不过若综指能上扬突破布林中频带的话,那综指将有望摆脱跌势而转强。

如图中箭头B所示,马股成交量减低24..5%,惟成交量还是成功的维持在40天成交量移动平均线(VMA)以上,这表示整体市场还是保持相当活跃。若成交量能继续的维持在40天平均值以上的话,那综指接下来转强或反弹的机会也将更浓厚。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)处于30%以下,这表示综指当前的短期走势是处于下跌中,直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

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