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Friday, October 24, 2008

Composite Index 23/10/2008综合指数 2008年 10月 23日



Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 23/10/2008

As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower on Thursday as poor performance across regional markets, and the KLCI managed to rebound slightly after hitting T2 downtrend dynamic support. Generally, as shown on the chart, the downtrend channel of T1 and T2 remains intact.

Support for the KLCI is at 880 points while the resistance is still at 900 psychological mark followed by 950 Fibonacci Retracement. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic resistance for the KLCI, and as long as the KLCI is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expands 2%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expands, more downside risk for the KLCI is expected.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 13.5%. Since the KLCI ended lower, the higher market volume actually suggested an increased of selling pressure.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remains below 30%, which is the short term bearish region. Therefore, this suggests that the market movement for the short term is still weak. If the Stochastic should touch 0%, it would be a signal suggesting an over-sold condition for the KLCI, thus a technical rebound is likely to take place. But, still, the market movement for the short term is still bearish biased.

综合指数 2008年 10月 23日

综合指数在亚太区股市下跌的阴影笼罩下再度下滑,惟如图中箭头A所示,综指在T2这下降趋势线获得扶持而稍微回弹,所以T2继续的成为综指当前的支持水平。整的来说,综指仍然是处于T1及T2趋势线组成的下降趋势线内。
综指当前的支持水平是880点,阻力水平则是900点的心理阻力水平以及950点的胜图自动费氏线。另一方面,布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)也将是综指上扬时的动态阻力线,通常若综指一日未能上扬突破布林中频带的话,那综指就一日不能成功的转强。
如图所示,布林频带(Bolinger Band)稍微打开2%,这表示综指延续之前的趋势:由于综指是处于布林中频带以下,所以综指继续出现下跌的趋势。
如图中箭头B所示,虽然综指下跌,不过马股成交量反而增长13.5%,这表示投资者在惊慌抛售下乘低吸购低价的股项,以赚取技术反弹的溢价,惟这些活动也加剧了综指当前的跌势。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)仍然维持在30%以下,所以综指的短期走势仍然是属于下跌中。通常综指将一直维持在短期跌势中,直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。另一方面,若随机值标跌至0%的话,那将表示综指出超卖的现象,有望出现纯技术反弹。

Composite Index 23/10/2008 综合指数 2008年 10月 23日 By Zhuge Liang

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